451’s container orchestration usage survey – Notebook

As part of CoreOS’s conference this week, 451 put out a sponsored study on container orchestration. It’s been much cited and is free, so it’s worth taking a look. Here’s my highlights and notes:

  • Leadgen yourself to CoreOS get a copy of the report.
  • This report is really more of a “container orchestration usage” report than much about “hybrid cloud.”
  • Demographics:
    • “We surveyed 201 enterprise IT decision-makers in April and May 2017. This was not a survey of developers; rather, we received responses from those in C-level and director-level positions, including CISO, CTO, CIO, director of IT, IT Ops and DevOps, and VPs and managers of IT.”
    • All from the US
    • “All of our survey respondents came from organizations using application containers, and all were familiar with their organization’s use of containers.” – This survey, then, tells you what people who’re already using containers are doing, not what the entire market is thinking and planning on.
    • “A significant slice of the survey respondents represented large enterprises.”
  • Organizations are hoping to use containers for “[a] ‘leapfrog’ effect, whereby containers are viewed as a way to skip adoption of other technologies, was tested, and a majority of respondents think Kubernetes and other container management and orchestration software is sufficient to replace both private clouds and PaaS.”
  • Obviously I’m biased, being at Pivotal, but the question here is “to do what?” As we like to say around here, you’re going to end-up with a platform. People need a “platform” on-top of that raw IaaS, and as things like Icito show (not to mention Pivotal’s ongoing momentum), the lower levels aren’t cutting the mustard.
  • There’s an ongoing semantic argument about what “PaaS” means to be mindful of, as well: in contexts like these, the term is often taken to mean “that old stuff, before, like 2009.” At the very least, as with Gartner’s PaaS Magic Quadrant, the phrase often means means “only in the public cloud.” Again, the point is: if you’re developing and running software you need an application development, middleware, and services platform. Call it whatever you like, but make sure you have it. It’s highly likely that these “whatever you want to call ‘PaaS’ PaaSes” will run on-top of and with container orchestration layers, for example, as Cloud Foundry does and is doing.
  • That said, it’s not uncommon for me to encounter people in organizations who really do have a “just the containers, and maybe some kubernates” mind-set in the planning phase of their cloud-native stuff. Of course, they frequently end-up needing more.
  • Back to the survey: keeping in mind that all respondents were already using containers (or at least committed to doing so, I think), ~27% had “initial” production container use, ~25% of respondents had “broad” containers in production. So, if you were being happy-path, you’d say “over half of respondents have containers in production.”
  • In a broader survey (where, presumably, not every enterprise was already using containers), of 300+ enterprises, production container use was: 19% in initial production, 8% were in broad production implementation.
  • Nonetheless, 451 has been tracking steady, high growth in container usage for the past few years, putting the container market at $2.7B by 2020 and $1.1bn in 2017.
  • As the report says, it’s more interesting to see what benefits users actually find once they’re using the technology. Their original desires are often just puppy-love notions after actual usage:

  • Interesting note on lock-in: “Given that avoiding vendor lock-in is generally a priority for organizations, it might seem surprising that it was not ranked higher as an advantage since much of the container software used today is open source… However, our respondents for this study were users of containers, and may have assumed that the technology would be open source and, thus, lock-in less of a concern.” (There’s a whole separate report from Gartner on lock-in that I’ll take a look at, and, of course, some 140 character level analysis.)
  • On marketshare, rated by usage, not revenue:

  • On that note, it’s easy to misread the widely quoted finding of “[n]early three-quarters (71 percent) of respondents indicated they are using Kubernetes” as meaning only Kubernetes. Actually, people are using many of them at once. The report clarifies this: “The fact that almost 75% of organizations reported using Kubernetes while the same group also reported significant use of other container management and orchestration software is evidence of a mixed market.”

As one last piece of context, one of the more recent Gartner surveys for container usage puts usage at around 18%, with 4% of that being “significant production use”:

Of course, looks at more specialized slices of the market find higher usage.

This early in the container market, it’s good to pay close attention to surveys because the sample size will be small, selective, and most people will only have used containers for a short while. But, there’s good stuff in this survey, it’s definitely worth looking at and using.

~9m/yr. VR unit shipments in context

Simon Sharwood pulls together some shipment numbers to put VR headset shipments in context.

The tl;dr on annual shipments: 9.2m VR headsets, vs. 135.6m wearbles, vs. ~1.5bn smartphones.


VR headsets have a runrate of, like, 9.2m units:

Virtual reality headsets are moving at a rate of 2.3 million a quarter

But, fast growing:

IDC says shipments are up 77.4 per cent year over year.

Meanwhile, wearables are at something like “33.9 million shipments a month,” like a runrate of 135.6m units.

Meanwhile, taking from this year’s Internet Trends report (sourced from Morgan Stanley), smart phone shipments are under 1.5bn, though slowing in growth:

And then smartphone shipments from IDC (probably where Morgan got those numbers):

For the full year [of 2016], the worldwide smartphone market saw a total of 1.47 billion units shipped, marking the highest year of shipments on record, yet up only 2.3% from the 1.44 billion units shipped in 2015.

Source: Virtual reality headsets even less popular than wearable devices

How’s HPE doing? Shrinking on purpose & otherwise

Many quotes of HPE’s CEO, Meg Whitman, explaining the state of HPE, 18 months after all the hijinks. Also, notes on some further cost reductions in the works: “We believe we can take out another $200 million to $300 million in cost in just the second half of this year.”

Stuart Lauchlan’s conclusion:

No-one can doubt the ambition in play here, a corporate reinvention on a massive scale that was never going to be entirely without bumps in the road.

See also his summary of the other half, HP.


Trumponomics: focusing on weird things with a small staff

From The Economist a few weeks back:

The real difference is that Trumponomics (unlike, say, Reaganomics) is not an economic doctrine at all. It is best seen as a set of proposals put together by businessmen courtiers for their king. Mr Trump has listened to scores of executives, but there are barely any economists in the White House. His approach to the economy is born of a mindset where deals have winners and losers and where canny negotiators confound abstract principles. Call it boardroom capitalism.

And, on trade, where history points towards a more open approach being successful:

Contrary to the Trump team’s assertions, there is little evidence that either the global trading system or individual trade deals have been systematically biased against America. Instead, America’s trade deficit—Mr Trump’s main gauge of the unfairness of trade deals—is better understood as the gap between how much Americans save and how much they invest. The fine print of trade deals is all but irrelevant. Textbooks predict that Mr Trump’s plans to boost domestic investment will probably lead to larger trade deficits, as it did in the Reagan boom of the 1980s. If so, Mr Trump will either need to abandon his measure of fair trade or, more damagingly, try to curb deficits by using protectionist tariffs that will hurt growth and sow mistrust around the world.

Meanwhile, by the numbers, the focus is obviously on the wrong sectors for juicing:

A deeper problem is that Trumponomics draws on a blinkered view of America’s economy. Mr Trump and his advisers are obsessed with the effect of trade on manufacturing jobs, even though manufacturing employs only 8.5% of America’s workers and accounts for only 12% of GDP. Service industries barely seem to register. This blinds Trumponomics to today’s biggest economic worry: the turbulence being created by new technologies. Yet technology, not trade, is ravaging American retailing, an industry that employs more people than manufacturing. And economic nationalism will speed automation: firms unable to outsource jobs to Mexico will stay competitive by investing in machines at home. Productivity and profits may rise, but this may not help the less-skilled factory workers who Mr Trump claims are his priority.

Check out the rest: “Courting trouble”.

Internet mattress momentum: Casper had ~$200m in 2016 sales

Casper had been out raising a large round of funding when the talks started, sources said. The startup generated around $200 million in sales in 2016 — its second full year in business — and was valued at around $550 million after its last private investment in 2015.

And, as the headline says: “Target looked at buying the mattress startup Casper for $1 billion but will invest instead.”

There’s a fair amount of commentary on this type of e-commerce stuff in this year’s Internet Trends report as well.


Core DevOps (tech) metrics, from Nicole Forsgren

Everyone always wants to know metrics. While the answer is always a solid “it depends – I mean, what are your business goals and then we can come up with some KPIs,” there’s a reoccurring set of technical metrics. Nicole lists some off:

These IT performance metrics capture speed and stability of software delivery: lead time for changes (from code commit to code deploy), deployment frequency, mean time to restore (MTTR), and change fail rate. It’s important to capture all of these because they are in tension with each other (speaking to both speed and stability, reflecting priorities of both the dev and ops sides of the team), and they reflect overall goals of the team. These metrics as a whole have also been shown to drive organizational performance.

And, then, further summarized by Daniel Bryant:

Key metrics for IT performance capture speed and stability of software delivery, and include: lead time for changes (from code commit to code deploy), deployment frequency, mean time to restore (MTTR), and change fail rate.

Also in the interview, a concise DevOps definition:

I define DevOps as a technology transformation that drives value to organizations through an ability to deliver code with both speed and stability.

See the rest.

Introducing microservices

There’s some good “how do I actually get my organization do all this unicorn stuff” comments in this interview with DreamWorks Animation’s Doug Sherman.

Here’s one sample bit on winning people over to microservices. Instead of going into the lab for six months to work on a tool that they think will be useful, they do a lot more user-driven work upfront and then do (it sounds like) weekly small batches to keep the users apprised of the tools and, you’d guess, give continuous feedback:

You have to understand what people want to do in their domain. In the past, Ive gotten it wrong. Ill come up with an idea I think is sound  I think its the coolest thing ever  and Ill work six months in isolation with my team, and then well do this big reveal. And every time we’ve done that, its gone horribly wrong, because 1) people feel like were lecturing to them, like we know better than them. And then 2) we would typically have over-engineered it! It would be like the 747 cockpit, you know? There would be this overwhelming amount of knobs and bits and pieces that I think are great to have, but from their viewpoint, they only need to do a few things, and thats an overwhelming amount of stuff to have to sign up to be able to do. So now, Ive gotten into a habit: before I even write a single line of code, I interview everybody that potentially will use the solution that Im going to write, and I keep them in lockstep with me and my team just about every week. We keep them engaged, helping to influence the direction Im basically trying to echo out in code all of what they want. Its gone so much better, because they feel invested. They don’t feel like in six months I’m revealing this big, mysterious thing. They feel like this is just something they’ve seen through iterations. And whats empowering about that, too, is if you can get the spiritual leaders of the different departments that you’re trying to encourage to use your solution, they’ll help sell it for you.

And then a bit on their progress:

Were about 50% of the way in having some amount of production coverage powered by microservices which are deployable in cloud containers powered by technologies such as Spring and Spring Cloud.

There’s more, good cultural change stories in the interview.

Analysis of Mary Meeker’s Internet Trends – Notebook

Each year, Mary Meeker and team put together the Internet Trends report that draws together an ever growing collection of charts and analysis about the state of our Internet-driven world, from the latest companies to industry and economic impact. Over the years, the report has gone on to include analysis of markets like China and India. Being a production of the Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers venture capital firm, the focus is typically on new technologies and the corresponding business opportunities: you know, the stuff like “millennials like using their smartphones” and the proliferation of smartphones and Internet globally.These reports are good for more than just numbers-gawking, but can also give some quantitative analysis of new, technology innovations in various industries. The consumer and advertising space consumes much of this business analysis, but for example, in this year’s report, there’s an interesting analysis of health-care and transportation (bike sharing in China!). For enterprises out there, it may seem to over-index on startups and small companies, but that doesn’t detract from the value of the ideas when it comes to any organization looking to do some good, old-fashioned “digital transformation.”

Normally, I’d post my notebook things here, but the Pivotal blog overlords wanted to put this in on the Pivotal blog, so check it out there.