Google has many overwhelming advantages. It has vast access to data, access to customers, access to capital and talent. It has TPUs. It has tons of places to take advantage of what it creates. It has the trust of customers, I’ve basically accepted that if Google turns on me my digital life gets rooted. By all rights they should win big.
On the other hand, Google is in many ways a deeply dysfunctional corporation that makes everything inefficient and miserable, and it also has extreme levels of risk aversion on both legal and reputational grounds and a lot of existing business to protect, and lacks the ability to move like a startup. The problems run deep.