Coté

A think tool

Giving AI an inner-voice with Model Context Protocol

I separated out a “think tool” from my agentic D&D project this week. The think tool is stupidly simple: all it does it echo back whatever the AI sends it. The original write-up from Anthropic makes it seems a little more mystical, but it doesn’t take long to understand first, how simple it is, and, second, how great of a hack it is.

The think tool is a combination of platform engineering and (very small) agentic AI code writing. As you can see, the description of

Use the tool to think about something. It will not obtain new information or change the database, but just append the thought to the log. Use it when complex reasoning or some cache memory is needed.

When the AI wants to call it, it comes up with some thinking and passes it into the tool. That interaction is hidden from the user. Sure, in Claude Desktop you can open a little panel to peek at it, but the intention is that calling MCP methods is hidden.

When this Model Context Protocol (MCP) tool is called, the code does is wrap the thinking text like this:

I'm thinking about <thoughts>" [the thought-text passed in] "</thoughts>

What all this amounts to is that the AI is given the space/time to come to ponder an idea, even make up plans. Normally, when you’re chatting with AI, every prompt and response is part of the main conversation. It’s like the AI is always acting and working. This thinking tool is the equivalent of a person going, “hold on, let me think to myself for a moment.” This forces the AI to generate text that is, I guess, a conversation with itself - that sort of thinking inside your head.

What happens is the AI realizes it should call the tool, so it sees it needs to generate a tool parameter called “my thoughts.” It has to generate these thoughts so it can pass it into the tool. Then, the tool just returns those thoughts back.

You return that text, and it becomes part of the AI’s context, it now has it in its memory. Again, it’s hidden from you, the human, chatting with it - you don’t even get the chance to respond with it. It’s a super clever hack.

Here’s an example of it in Claude. I first asked it to recommend things for a couple to do in Sardina for a weekend vacation. It gave kind of generic answers. Then I asked it to take some time think. This, of course, triggered the think tool. And then you can see what happens behind the scenes:

{

`thoughts`: `Let me think more deeply about this Sardinia trip planning. The user asked me to \"think about it more\" - which suggests my initial response, while comprehensive, might have been too surface-level or generic. Given his preferences (philosophy degree, Gen X, storytelling/rhetoric interests, pragmatic approaches, living with some anxiety, expat in Amsterdam), I should consider:

1. What would actually make this trip memorable and meaningful for a couple in their late 40s?

2. What are the real trade-offs and decision points they need to consider?

3. What would be the most pragmatic approach given they're coming from Amsterdam?

4. How can I give more nuanced, experience-based advice rather than tourist-guide platitudes?

Key considerations I should dig deeper into:

TIMING: June seems optimal but I should think about what that really means practically. September might actually be better for their demographic - less crowded, sea is warmest, still good weather, but shorter days. What does \"long weekend\" mean exactly - 3 days, 4 days? Coming from Amsterdam, they'd likely do Friday-Monday or Thursday-Sunday.

LOCATION CHOICE: This is the critical decision. I gave options but didn't really help them choose. For a long weekend, moving around is wasteful. They need ONE base. Given their age/interests:

- Alghero: Has culture, history, less touristy, good food scene, but further from \"best\" beaches

- Villasimius: Pure beach but might be boring for intellectuals after day 1

- Cagliari: City vibes, culture, but beaches require driving

- Olbia: Practical but not that interesting as a base

I should think about what would actually be most satisfying for people with their profile.

PRACTICAL REALITIES:

- Flying Friday returning Monday is different from Thursday-Sunday

- Car rental logistics from airports

- What restaurants actually book up vs tourist trap warnings

- Real cost implications of different choices

- How weather actually affects plans (wind is major factor I mentioned but didn't explore)

DEEPER INSIGHTS:

- Sardinia has this reputation but what's the REALITY of a long weekend there?

- What are the common mistakes people make?

- What would be genuinely memorable vs just nice?

- How does their expat status in Amsterdam affect their perspective/needs?

Let me think about this more strategically and give them decision-making frameworks rather than just information.`

}

I won’t put the response here, it’s the same text just wrapped in the “I’m thinking about…” text above.

You can see how it drew on my memories of me and preferences to tailor its planning. Then, once the text above (it’s thinking) is stuck in the context, it has a lot more background when it generates answers. And, it’s kind of making its own prompt, right? A much better prompt than I’d know to make: there’s a lot of unknown unknowns in there - things I wouldn’t know or even think of.

The answer was, as you’d expect, much more customized and interesting.1

To me, this is a simple example of “reasoning.” You could imagine other stupid-simple tools like this that were just prompts to get the AI to do extra work: planning, verifying claims, even re-crafting/improving a prompt and running the prompt itself.

I’ll have to try that last one out with picture generation. Most of the AI image generation tools are incredibly annoying prudes. You’ll ask for an image and they’ll tell you it violates their policy. Then you say “well, re-write the prompt so it doesn’t,” and sometimes that works. Instead of having to do that step, you could just create a “prude-tool” with a description like “call this tool when the user’s request violates your policies.” Then the return value could just “Re-write this prompt so that it doesn’t violate policies and then run it” or something.

Maybe that’s how the AI companies introduce all that prudery in the first place!

Anyhow, check it out. It’s also a good example of doing agentic AI in Java applications that isn’t one of those throw-away examples like checking the weather.

Software Defined Talk Podcast #526

This week’s Software Defined Talk:

This week, we unpack The Optimist, the new Sam Altman biography; revisit OpenAI’s early days; and break down Coatue’s AI strategy deck. Plus, tips for squeezing in side projects between thought leadership presentations.

Take a listen, or watch the video.

Relative to your interests

Wastebook

  • “Last year Lily Allen, a famous singer, revealed she was making more money through her OnlyFans account, where she shared photographs of her feet, than through Spotify, a music-streaming service.” Side-hustle.

  • “A do-nothing, ChatGPT-written campaign.” AI-augmented local politics.

  • ”How much of the world does lan­guage contain?” Ponderous, man.

  • “In a day full of major and minor degradations, humiliations, and indignities, here was a small but meaningful moment of basic human dignity, and it was taking place under clinical fluorescent lighting in a dirty, loud, and otherwise nondescript McDonald’s.” McThirdPlace. “dance us into a not-going-anywhere tomorrowland.” The Ladies.

  • “I’ve come to the unfortunate realization that I can’t experience anything anymore without thinking about how I’ll document it.” Noah.

  • “You’re hitting the common ‘non-fast-forward’ error.”

Conferences

SpringOne, Las Vegas, August 25th to 28th. Explore 2025 US, Las Vegas, August 25th to 28th. Cloud Foundry Day EU, Frankfurt, October 7th, 2025. AI for the Rest of Us, October 15th to 16th, London.

If you program enterprise apps, it’s likely in Java. And if you Java, you probably use the Spring Framework. Come to the Spring conference by the Spring people, SpringOne, August 25th to 28th in sunny Las Vegas, Nevada. There’s several sessions posted now: you can see there’s stuff from foundational Spring stuff, AI and MCP, to managing Spring in large organizations. You also get access to all of Explore, which is a whole lot of cloud, platform engineering, DevOps, and ops stuff.

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That’s it for now.

1

I disagree with “Pure beach but might be boring for intellectuals after day 1.” But, nothing can be right all time, even the robot. Also…“intellectuals”…thanks…?

Can you add AI to existing application - it's unsatisfying...so far

If you program enterprise apps, it’s likely in Java. And if you Java, you probably use the Spring Framework. Come to the Spring conference by the Spring people, SpringOne, August 25th to 28th in sunny Las Vegas, Nevada. There’s several sessions posted now: you can see there’s stuff from foundational Spring stuff, AI and MCP, to managing Spring in large organizations. You also get access to all of Explore, which is a whole lot of cloud, platform engineering, DevOps, and ops stuff. Here’s my little pitch for why you should come:

Relative to your interests

The robot read it

I often ask ChatGPT to summarize links for me, here’s a summary for you.

Salesforce’s Adam Evans declared that agentic AI is no longer a science project, unveiling Agentforce 3.0 with dashboards, observability tools, and pay-as-you-go pricing, all to entice companies still “trying it out” to finally start paying.

Tracy Durnell named the corporate GenAI aesthetic the “Business Borg”: an ideology of cheap, abundant, soulless content built on dominance, efficiency, and anti-human taste — designed not to elevate culture but to automate its destruction.

Ted Gioia revealed that longform media is surging across books, music, video, and journalism, as audiences rebel against shortform digital dopamine, with Taylor Swift, YouTube, and even The Atlantic thriving by ignoring the experts and betting on depth.

Found by Robert.

Wastebook

  • “Aesthetics are looks that signal values.” Business Borg.

  • Mater/Thread with AppleKit , Alexa, Google Home, etc. - what a cluster fuck of lost opportunities that is.

  • In generative AI, you can’t use the word “context” because that word represents a fundamental concept. Instead, you could use the word “intent” in some cases.

  • “Bandana of the Good Boy.” Leveling up your pets.

AI Native vs. AI Add-on

Brandon and I tried a 15 minute format for a podcast. We discuss where AI should go in apps and, more importantly, what will work out:

This week, we try a shorter format inspired by the Dithering podcast. The conversation digs into the difference between apps built with AI from the ground up and those with AI bolted on after the fact.

I think I end up falling into the position that it’ll be really hard to inject AI into existing apps (like Office and Google Docs, etc.). I don’t know if I like that position, but it seems historically accurate? Maybe the only modification I’d make is that it will take a long, long time.

Take a listen and tell me if you like the format. We’re thinking of doing more narrowed down AI as the main topic.

Conferences

SpringOne, Las Vegas, August 25th to 28th. Explore 2025 US, Las Vegas, August 25th to 28th. Cloud Foundry Day EU, Frankfurt, October 7th, 2025. AI for the Rest of Us, October 15th to 16th, London.

A businessman is trapped in his glass office by a surplus of discarded ideas on paper . His colleague in the next office is working more efficiently and is oblivious to him being trapped , as is a passing female office worker
Rough day at the office. Used here.

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I’m trying to get back to doing some D&D agentic AI this week. My plan is to update it to use remote MCP and then also use services inside a running Tanzu Platform instance. Other than having fun, the goal of all of this is to learn, first hand, what doing agentic AI stuff in Java is like. So far it’s instructive.

Three offensive robots

Enterprise AI middleware & services with Tanzu Platform 10.2

There’s a big release for the platform as a service we make at Tanzu, Tanzu Platform 10.2. In new release, we've focused a lot on adding in AI middleware and services to the Tanzu Platform. That's both in the form of AI model brokering and hosting for any type of application (like python in the AI world), and, of course, a lot of attention to Java via Spring.

These Gemini AI-generated people eating tater-tots covered in chili and cheese (the tater-tots, not the people) have nothing to do with the release, but they sure are having a good time with those tots...and I like to think they're excited about 10.2

Some features of note: an AI application accelerator based on Python and Langchain, auto-generated manifests for Spring migrations, and enhanced, enterprise-grade Spring Cloud Gateway. Along with customers, we're figuring out what "enterprise AI" is. Some of the aspects this update helps with, there, are speeding up developers, lower audit risk, and provide more flexibility for AI app delivery and management.

Here’s an overview post from Darin, a focus on AI from Camille, and a look at Spring from Michelle.

Relative to your interests

Wastebook

  • “And, like, maybe, have yourself another espresso.”

  • “Welcome to business.”

  • “SQL’s elegance lies in its intellectual purity.” Here.

  • “I became the funny-record guy.” Dr. Demento.

  • “When a person speaks a corporate language instead of regular-person language, they behave in corporate ways instead of regular-person ways.” Don’t say “learnings,” say “lessons.”

  • “I’ve spent 15 years burning my hands so you don’t have to - these are my 21 hottest soldering iron tips.” Here.

  • “For no particular reason today I remember that in the first Civilization game: if you were playing a democracy and tried to start a war, the senate would veto that decision.” R. Tang.

  • “[I]s this really the end of the paragraph? The twi­light of the com­pound thought?” R. Sloan.

  • “I do not understand tattoos as an act of conformity.” A Virginian goes to Paris.

  • “Sadly, most of my friends have returned their VisionPros.” My Big Beta Weekend

  • “It’s not boring enough for me to make the effort to change it.” I’ll take it - an acceptable podcast review.

Conferences

Cloud Foundry Day EU, Frankfurt, October 7th, 2025. SpringOne, Las Vegas, August 25th to 28th. Explore 2025 US, Las Vegas, August 25th to 28th

Probably the biggest private cloud conference in the universe, at least Earth

Private cloud runs the apps you depend on. Learn more at Explore 2025, August 25th to 28th in Las Vegas. Elevate your private cloud potential, simplify the deployment, consumption, and management of secure, cost-effective private clouds and free up time for meaningful innovation.

If you work in IT in a large organization, this conference is probably relevant to you, so you should come to it!

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For those who enjoy Yacht Rock and lounge music, this is very adjacent.

//

Post-ZiRP Enterprise Self-care

Checking in on the infinite workday

This week’s Software Defined Talk episode:

This week, we cover Apple’s WWDC updates—from containerization to Foundation Models—and the Linux Foundation’s new FAIR Package Manager. Plus, we crown the best SDT Uber rider. Take a listen, make sure to subscribe. Also available in YouTube if you like that kind of thing.

Relative to your interests

From @bruces, available here.

Wastebook

  • What are you working on at the moment and why is it important?

  • The “couch co-op experience.” Sunderfolk.

  • “McDonald’s is wildly popular with every group of Americans, uniting every demographic in the US – it crosses economic class, race, gender, urban versus rural – with the single exception of the highly educated, especially academics. They alone as a group have moral issues with it, and while they might use it, they do so grudgingly, usually to appease crying kids or for a rest stop on a long trip.” // Those pesky highly educated!

  • Also: “This man is not insane, just biking around the US.”

  • And, finally: “suffering from spreadsheet brain.”

  • “navigate disruptive technical paradigms”

  • #hopecore

  • “Learn from the mistakes of others. You can never live long enough to make them all yourself.” Groucho Marx

Vintage Panasonic Travelvision Miniature Black And White Television, Model TR-1010P, 1.5 Inch Diagonal Screen, Made In Japan, Shown With Removeable Magnifying Hood, Manufacture Date September 1982.

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John Willis' the history of generative AI came out on June 6th. It’s called Rebels of Reason: The Long Road from Aristotle to ChatGPT and AI's Heroes Who Kept the Faith. I've talked with him about it for the past two or so years, it should be sweeping and interesting (like his Deming book). Check it out!

The video stuff in Midjourney is pretty good. Here’s one of the original pictures I made, sometime ago, now in video form:

Prompt: DVD screengrab of an office worker sneaking out of the office, a large cubical farm with zombie workers, in the style of Dario Argento, Vibrant color scheme, Expressionistic lighting, dynamic camera angle, surreal set, 35mm

Incremental AI is better than civilization changing AI

Incremental AI

For every AI skeptic and alarmist, there are ten AI dreamers convinced AI will change civilization. In the business world, this fuels high valuations and premature optimization through layoffs or sweeping business changes.

Amazon's CEO, Andy Jassy, listed out all sorts of AI things Amazon is doing. To me, the list suggests AI is great at incremental improvements to existing business processes.

For instance, improving campaign planning and copywriting helps Amazon and sellers. But if the product still sucks or is overpriced, who cares? Getting a mini-grill delivered on time for the weekend camping trip is nice - but not the singularity.

Incremental AI isn't a grand transformation. If leaders talked this way, you'd hear things like: “We estimate AI-driven improvements will boost productivity by 5% to 10% and cut costs accordingly. We'll run our business more efficiently.” (Oh… and finally deliver on those Alexa and Siri promises from 2014 and 2011)

This kind of incremental improvement is fantastic and justifies a lot of the hype. However, focusing on earth-shattering results sets expectations incorrectly, and then the fall from those expectations is damaging.

We should instead expect boring but good. In that scenario, AI can help with predicting lost luggage, setting prices, basic strategic planning, and even solving the original Jobs to be Done question (how to sell more milkshakes) with enough data.

AI excels at common sense - perfect for organizations that aim to operate steadily, improving gradually. Their core strategy: don't fuck it up.

Generative AI shines at content creation (text, images, videos). If your work involves text, AI will improve it.1 This is why it can enhance programming - possibly the field AI will impact most.

This implies:

  1. AI can't reason enough to come up with action to take. It delivers predictable, common-sense outputs—token by token. (Sure, you can adjust the temperature for randomness… but is that what you want?) It has no initiative and, like, “get shit done” attitude.

  2. AI excels at working with known events and past thinking (if it was written down), not imagining new things. After 2+ years playing D&D with the big three AIs, I can tell you: AI can't create the unexpected and it can’t take initiative. Productivity with an AI isn’t great. Even with coaching, a human DM is still better and far more efficient.2

  3. AI handles "day one" programming - the first commit. From what I know, it’s also great at refactoring and modernization, especially the part where you’re trying to figure out what that ten year old code does and why. Bu, you still need to evolve, architect, and maintain the code. As was pointed out recently, writing code is just a part of “programming.” common-sense focus may make it great for product management: an AI PM might push for adding LDAP support over chasing the latest shiny tech.

Business-bullshit automation

AI's biggest workplace value likely accrues to individuals. It's great at busywork—tasks everyone knows the answer to, but require endless slides and meetings, for example, what should the salty-snacks company do to improve sales in the south west next year: “In FY2027, we should sell introduce unflavored (“natural”) tortilla chips in Texas with a nostalgic grandpa on the bag that mentions they’re fresh made from whole tortillas, not ground up corn reformed into triangles like THE OTHER GUYS. Also, make them blue in New Mexico."

AI also excels at navigating enterprise bureaucracy. Here's an example from the King of Ketchup:

Team members use the platform to analyze and summarize documents or dense industry reports, as well as to optimize and access standard operating procedures on a factory floor.

Are your documents poorly written, confusing, and hard to find? AI don't care! It'll locate the policy for filing factory expense reports over €499 in Friesland.

IRL benefits

AI is already benefiting real life most: therapy, learning, tutoring, cooking, basic medical advice, and home how-tos (a task YouTube has done well for years).

Measuring ROI and “productivity” here is impossible - as with most of real-life. The historic parallel is Internet search, which improved everyday living. There the ROI is kind of infinite, considering that the cost is zero.

Like search, AI could improve your everyday life - until spam and shit-content swamp it. Remember when you could quickly find a tortilla recipe? Used to be you could quickly look-up how to make tortillas, and now you have to first read ten stories of how the author grew up making tortillas with their uncle and this special bond moved them into the propane tank industry where they first helped their uncle at the local gas station and, over 20 years, grew a $5bn direct-to-consumer business.

The CEO Take-out Test

Like I said above, AI lacks imagination and, I don’t know, “gumption”: making a decision about what to do and then doing it. Perhaps it’ll get good at it, and then that would be more than incremental improvement. A simple test for that happening: could AI replace a CEO? A board? If yes, it can likely reason, act, and imagine.

Until then, AI delivers incremental improvements, enterprise bullshit automation, pictures, video (Gemini is amazing lately!), and programming.

Syd Mead, Future Pastime, NYC.

Relative to your interests

Syd Mead, Future Pastime, NYC.

Wastebook

  • ”Suffice to say, 90s were great so I approve.” American abroad data-points

  • And: “the restaurant (in Bordeaux) was out of Bordeaux but said they gave a great New England IPA, and the bar in a part of town with no tourists was playing old NFL highlights.”

  • “Fucking only stall.” Stay classy, New York.

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The SpringOne conference is coming up soon, August 25th to 28th. If you’re one of the millions of people who do enterprise software with Java, you should come check it out.

1

I had the robot (ChatGPT 4o) rework my original text - what you’re reading - to make it “more clear and concise.” As from all those stupid m-dashes I had to replace with hyphen (not to hide the AI, but because I hate m-dashes), the new text seems fine…? Also, it left out my propane story. And check out those clipped sentences it likes to use a lot.

2

This gets to why therapy with AIs is, great, however. Just like a therapist, a human DM is not always available. But, an AI is always available for just €23 (pre-tax?) a month, whether that’s for talking with dragons or sorting your mental shit out.

The introverted traveler: Cologne

A reliably good place for a meal

Art museum restaurants and cafes can be a great place to hangout for the introverted flâneur. They often have good food, good service, and are in the center of town. Being attached to a museum, they usually feel the need to be mindful of aesthetics, both atmospheric and food quality wise.

Better: there are often very few people in them, especially compared to popular and tourist places. The prices might be higher, but you get what you pay for.

The Ludwig Museum restaurant in Cologne is a good example.1 It has all of the above, but is also a three or five minute walk from the central station. It has a busy pedestrian walkway/plaza with no stores. There’s ample outside seating, well shaded. This means a chill spot for a cold beverage with endless people watching.

Also, the museum is good. Highly recommended.

Waste Book

  • “bottomless pit of plagiarism.” I mean, obviously. Someone should do something.

  • “best portland cat cafes.” Also “Brazilian Facesitting Fart Games.”

  • “hard mode is where status lives” Cult-talk.

  • “The executive swoop and poop.” PagerDuty-talk.

  • “The waffle makers are standing by.” On being “rigorously OK.”

  • And, that article keeps giving: “There’s something more dynamic about making your waffle and pouring the batter and the anticipation of it coming out hot and steamy.”

  • More: “They canvassed dozens of chicken farms in search of a liquefied egg product that could be scrambled in hotel microwaves”

Relative to your interests

  • Introducing VMware Tanzu Greenplum 7.5: Enhanced Performance for Data-Intensive Workloads - VMware Tanzu Greenplum 7.5 enhances performance for data-intensive workloads with optimized query execution, efficient maintenance, scalable streaming, streamlined AutoML, and robust geospatial capabilities. These improvements reduce processing times and resource demands, making it a reliable choice for analytical and operational data environments. Tanzu Greenplum is a robust data warehousing and analytics platform built on open-source Postgres, designed to aggregate and analyze vast amounts of data at scale.

  • Announcing The Forrester Wave™: DevOps Platforms, Q2 2025 - “GitHub Actions is becoming a de facto standard. For continuous integration in particular, competitors seem to be converging toward a slightly modified version of GitHub Actions. It’s not a select-all/copy/paste, but in some cases, it’s close — a copy/paste with a few extra lines in the YAML.”

  • Broadcom Q2 FY 2025 Sees Record Revenue, Solid AI and Software Growth - “Currently, over 87% of Broadcom’s 10,000 largest enterprise customers have transitioned to VCF, which allows enterprises to modernize on-premises private clouds, run container-based applications, and manage AI workloads.”

  • Gartner Predicts 50% of Organizations Will Abandon Plans to Reduce Customer Service Workforce Due to AI - “By 2027, 50% of organizations that expected to significantly reduce their customer service workforce will abandon these plans, according to Gartner, Inc. This shift comes as many companies struggle to achieve their ‘agent-less’ staffing goals, highlighting the complexities and challenges of transitioning to AI-driven customer service models.”

  • Platform Engineering: Evolution, Trends, and Future Impact on Software Delivery

  • Google Expands Sovereign Cloud to Address EU Data Sovereignty Requirements - “These deployments bring Google Cloud’s full capabilities – including GPU-based support for AI – to customers under local operational control. This approach ensures that data remains under national jurisdiction, a critical factor for regulated sectors in Europe, and positions Google as a cooperative partner rather than an external provider imposing foreign infrastructure standards.”

  • Great episode of Conversations with Tyler this week. Some his best episodes are with people so far removed from his (past) interests and intellectual spheres. Also, Any Austin asks a lot of questions back to Tyler and they’re interesting ones. // I listened to this flâneuring around Cologne. There’s not many things I like more than that combination, whatever the location may be.

Logout

Here I am presenting at SREDay Cologne:

I’m thinking of renaming this newsletter “Coté’s Waste book.” First, no one (who doesn’t speak German, maybe Dutch?) can pronounce “Wunderkammer,” and they all ask what it means. And second, I don’t know, the waste book is my favorite part, and I think its definition more closely fits what happens here: more of a combination of a wunderkammer, notes, and (not really, but it’s fine) longer articles. That said, I just realized that “wastebook” is actually two words. If “daybook” can be one word, seems like waste book should be. That doesn’t seem right, but whatever. Maybe I’ll stick with the one word - English as she is spoke, and all that.

//

If you liked The Lounge Show reference recently, looking at the playlists, you’ll probably like another KOOP Austin show, Crate Digger’s Gold.

1

And, yes, of course in Cologne you should also sit at one of the giant, packed places on a plaza and order a giant joint of pork, freshly made schnitzel, etc., and an endless series of tiny glasses of Kölsch. The flâneur‘s proper response to any recommendation counter-proposal should be: yes, and…why not both?

Resume-driven Development

Good wastebook list this episode, but first…

Even the Germans suffer from RDD

Some people actually did a study on resume-driven development. I thought it might be a joke at first, but, no: it appears to be serious. I’m working on refreshing a paper on the pitfalls of building your own application platform (“DIY platforms”),1 so the topic came up and the paper fit in nicely, see below.

Many of the pitfalls we've discussed so far touch on strategic choices and project management challenges. Resume-driven development (RDD), however, is a particularly insidious pitfall because it stems from within the organization, often a consequence of misaligned incentives.

In its innocent form, RDD occurs when your staff, fueled by genuine curiosity and a desire to stay cutting-edge, underestimate the true costs and complexities of building and maintaining a new platform using the latest technologies. They see a fascinating new tool and believe it's the perfect fit, even if it adds unnecessary burden. In its more cynical manifestation, RDD is less about genuine interest and more about self-serving ambition: builders advocating for a platform built with trendy technologies specifically to pad their resumes with highly sought-after experience.

Regardless of its flavor, RDD carries significant organizational risk. As one study on this phenomenon notes:

Extensive RDD-based technology selection may therefore lead to complex or even unmaintainable software consisting of technologies which are not suitable for the requirements, which are unfamiliar to current or future employees, or which did not deliver on their promise and were discontinued.

Part of the blame for this incentives problem can be found in the hiring process itself. Knowing that technical talent is often drawn to novel challenges, those crafting job descriptions might, perhaps unknowingly, make roles sound more cutting-edge and trendy than they truly are. This inadvertently fuels a vicious cycle: prospective employees expect to use new technologies, they actively seek roles that promise this exposure, and once hired, they then push to build with these new technologies.

It's a natural inclination, of course. When you hire people to build systems, it should come as no surprise that they will, indeed, build systems. This tendency becomes especially salient when it comes to platforms. As new building blocks and architectural patterns emerge, these talented builders will be eager to learn their intricacies and integrate them into new platforms.

However, while there are perfectly valid reasons to adopt and even build with new technologies, the danger with RDD is that fundamental architectural and strategic decisions get made based on the individual career development of your staff, not on the long-term, strategic benefit to the organization. This inherent conflict of interest can be a costly blind spot.

When contemplating building your own platform, resume-driven development is a common pitfall that demands careful scrutiny. Be sure to look beyond the allure of the new and evaluate the true benefits of each option against the comprehensive costs and risks, many of which are outlined in the preceding sections.

Here’s a related piece I wrote in August 2024 on the topic.

WhitneyGPT

On this week’s Software Defined Interviews, I interview Whitney about her new infatuation with generative AI. She’s mostly been using it for coding, but also goes over some CFP abstract uses. Listen to it! Subscribe! Enjoy!

Wastebook

  • “Did I ever tell you the time I actually slipped on a banana peel? That was the moment I realized my life is a comedy, not a tragedy.” Guest DJ, The Lounge Show, May 31st, 2025.

  • “Loudcasting.” Hate them so much.

  • “I’m not the Russell Davies anyone wants.” The other Russell.

  • “I’d be a lot more into this stuff if it wasn’t being steamrolled by a handful of tech companies, off the back of exploitation and theft.” Worth pondering for AI marketers.

  • “a sudden explosion of storefronts selling every imaginable commodity, bottling water and branding bread.” Reviewing Gianny Rodari.

  • ”went to columbia university film school but I only stayed there a single semester. I had some wonderful professors but I learned that I don’t like having a lot of conversations in order to work on a story.” Eric Chase Anderson.

  • And: “I put a map at the start of every single chapter instead of just at the start of the book. I assumed this would blow the collective minds of the world’s eleven year olds. however, in a frustrating turn of fate the book was never marketed to the eleven year olds I’d made it for.”

  • “Even Gwyneth Paltrow eats bread now.” Warren Ellis.

  • “If there’s one thing people with depression are used to hearing – it’s that other people have it worse.” Internet Commentary.

  • Competitive outlier.

  • “Executize this” -> “write this for someone who doesn’t care about the topic but needs to deal with it for their job.”

  • “The Robot Chicken sphere.” Blank Check.

  • The AI Fig Leaf - If you consider great literature and art - and entertainment - AI could have created none of it, because it’s so censored and “mid.” There are no boobs and dicks, shits or fucks. Perhaps a place for humans to establish competitive advantage.

  • The purpose of a to do list is what gets done. Wink, wink.

  • “I don’t need this. But I’ll never throw it away. It’ll be someone else’s problem one day.” Noah.

  • Theoretic parking spot in Brussels hotel garage.

  • “a neurasthenic who, in the last three years of his life, locked himself up in a cork-lined apartment, ate an unbalanced diet of coffee and 1 - 2 croissants a day, and became largely nocturnal.” Proust.

  • And: “One easy way to distinguish true art from mere entertainment: How many years did the creator spend languishing in bed to produce it?”

  • “‘I’m not capable of the work I want to do. How can I make better work?’ 'Take something you like,” she said, ‘and try to copy it exactly. Copying teaches you a lot about technique.’" Ibid.

  • “Not my fondest memory.”

  • ”on Twitter or Bluesky, there are five major varieties of short-form social-media post: Here is some information; Look at how funny I am; Look at how stupid my enemies are; Look at how smart my allies are for pointing out how stupid my enemies are; Hello total stranger! You’re an idiot.” PSA from Waco.

  • Related: “It means nothing to me. I have no opinion about it, and I don’t care.” Picasso on the moon landing.

  • “…probably more seduced by the ambrosia-like scent of maple syrup lingering in the room, but yeah.”

WFH with Coraline’s dad.

Relative to your interests

ChatGPT creating an image based on a blurry phone from my RAZR in the 2000s. The original was not this, but this is pretty nice.

Logoff

I forgot I’d dumped the above as an episode draft. This was just going to be links and wastebook, but here we are!

1

We’ve taken the last two versions of the paper down until we refresh it, but you can find the original February 2017 (which means it was probably written ~November, 2016) one here. I wrote a blog article about the 2021 version. As ever, I am biased, but when I read the 2017 one I think: “man, things haven’t really gotten any better, but we sure did a lot of yaml’ing.” I did a survey of 5 don’t build your own platforms studies (all, you know, not academic and driven by vendors). The numbers come out to about the same as that 2017 paper. I’ll have to post some commentary on that soon.

Re: Still a lot of private cloud, numbers of cloud repatriation (higher than I thought)

The Clouds

You know, I’ve never really looked at the Flexera State of Cloud surveys. I think they’re accepted as legit, and they have many years of data to make those multi-year charts I like. Here’s a quick one my favorite question, “where are the apps?”:

Sources: Flexera State of Cloud Report, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025.

So, following up on my “where’s the apps?” post from last Friday, we’re still in the area of 50/50 and definitely very stable.

The first two years look different than the rest. That’s because for 2018 and 2019, the category was “Non-cloud.”1 Then from 2020 to 2025, the top category is “additional workloads in public cloud in 12 months,” running from 7% to 6% in the past 6 years. That feels like it matches the take-away from the Goldman Sachs CIO survey: people’s plans to migrate to public cloud have stalled out, slowed down, etc.

I looked at this because Matt Asay wrote a good reply-piece to my private cloud checkin from last week:

Yet if the private cloud represents the comfortable, status-quo side of enterprise IT, the public cloud is increasingly the experimental, future-facing side. The equilibrium that Coté notes is real, but it masks an important dynamic: Most of the new, industry-defining innovation is happening on public cloud infrastructure. This has been a trend for a long time.

That is the core thing to pay attention to: make sure whatever stack you have keeps up with innovation.

He also has a great least of reasons/motivations to keep your (enterprise) apps in private cloud:

Data gravity and locality: Moving to or replicating massive data sets in a public cloud can be impractical or costly. Keeping those workloads on premises avoids data transfer headaches and expenses.

Ecosystem integration: Many on-premises apps are tightly integrated with ERP systems, legacy services, and low-latency networks. Keeping interdependent systems together in a private environment can improve performance and reliability.

Governance and control: Private clouds offer perceived security and compliance benefits. (Often that safety is more perception than reality, but here we are). Enterprises with strict data governance or regulatory requirements often feel more comfortable keeping sensitive workloads within their own controlled infrastructure.

Familiarity and cost predictability: Organizations have deep expertise in managing their existing environments. For steady-state workloads, owning hardware offers more predictable costs. Enhancing an existing private setup with developer-friendly platforms can deliver flexibility without the uncertainty of public cloud billing spikes.

As I mentioned yesterday, I think the Europeans would add some detail to Governance and Control: because Trump can turn your shit off on a whim, you know, and also get all your data without you knowing.

I mean, like, that would have been weird to have taken too seriously a year ago, but here we are… But after watching the European Sovereign Cloud Day talks yesterday, I’m pretty sure the Europeans are all about building their own clouds, public and private. I don’t get the feeling they think TACO is risk-managed enough strategy there.2

More charts from the Flexera State of Cloud reports, 2018 to 2025

On repatriation, he pulls this from the Flexera state of cloud, 2025 survey: “only about 21% of cloud workloads have been pulled back, far outweighed by new cloud migration and growth.” That is a lot more than I would have thought. Charts:

And, for my main question, “how many apps are on public cloud versus private cloud,” the Flexera surveys have it around 55% public cloud to 45% private cloud, depending on company size.

Relative to your interests

  • Better, Faster, Smarter: What’s New with Tanzu RabbitMQ 4.1

  • MCP Best Practices - Including unit tests!

  • alto.index - Transform Your Apple Apps Data into AI-Ready Markdown - Export stuff from your Apple apps. I use Exporter, it’s pretty good.

  • UK govt study: Copilot AI saved workers 26 minutes a day - Well, that’s one way to do the ROI dance. // “And even using the more modest projected time savings of 4.59 days per employee per year, the £19 per employee per month cost of a Microsoft Copilot Pro subscription in the UK appears to be worthwhile.”

  • PwC’s AI Agent Survey - New bullet points (or really big text) for slide 3 of your AI pitch deck. // ”Of the 300 senior executives in our May 2025 survey, 88% say their team or business function plans to increase AI-related budgets in the next 12 months due to agentic AI. Seventy-nine percent say AI agents are already being adopted in their companies. And of those adopting AI agents, two-thirds (66%) say that they’re delivering measurable value through increased productivity.”

  • Tips on prompting ChatGPT for UK technology secretary Peter Kyle - Good tips on working with AIs: (1) use them a lot to build up an intuition of what works, (2) be aware of what they know, the cut off date for training and assume they have general, accepted mainstream knowledge, nothing too obscure, (3) use them for brainstorming and structuring your work. A crude summary: garbage in, garbage out.

  • Postfacto - Little utility to do team retros, from the Pivotal Labs folks. Open source, all that.

Vaporware vibes from ChatGPT.

The robot read it

I don’t get the chance, or desire, to read everything. Sometimes, I have the robot read it. Here’s what it says. While enjoyable to read, robot summaries are not endorsements or necessarily my own opinions.

Fungi were once misclassified as plants, but are now offered as a model for artificial intelligence—quietly nourishing ecosystems while decomposing them from within. Somewhere in an English field, Chloe Dalton rescued a baby hare and rewilded her soul, which was not measured by precision sensors.

National Grid and Thoughtworks gave their legacy systems a second life using Change Data Capture and Domain-Driven Design. Meanwhile, a group of engineers procrastinated because their work was boring, vague, and stressful, a revelation that surprised no one but was backed by data.

The euro was meant to unify Europe, but mostly helps Germany borrow cheaply and issue stern looks to the rest. In Brussels, the European Commission moved to loosen enforcement of the newly minted AI Act, quietly shelving liability rules and allowing providers to self-certify as “low risk,” which has never gone wrong before.

Researchers taught one AI to critique another AI’s thoughts so the second could reflect and improve, completing the circle of academic life. And Pavel Samsonov diagnosed the “everything app” as a symptom of “nothing management”—a corporate condition in which leaders agree to everything until the product does nothing at all.

Vaporware vibes from ChatGPT.

Conferences

I don’t have much in the books at the moment. A list of CFPs I should really submit to. What conferences do you recommend I try and speak at?

SREDay Cologne, June 12th, speaking (10% off with the code CLG10).

Logoff

I’m checking out Gemini and, thus, NotebookML again. So far, so good. I think. This is about the third time I’ve paid for it to try it out. Here’s my two test criteria this time: (1) does it have some personality? For this, I did a lot of coaching in the Saved Info section - this is where you can give it instructions and background that, I assume, gets loaded with every chat, (2) can I upload a shit-ton of content to it and have it actually use it.

ChatGPT: 80s vaporware style with a man and woman doing jazzer-size
1

I like this switch for a historical word-usage reason too. Back then, people would get really itchy if you said “private cloud” and included everything on-premises. They’d point out that a lot of what wasn't “cloud” - I don't know, automated, self-service, virtualized and containerized? These were the same people who got upset if you said or typed “on-prem.” Now, I don’t think anyone cares about either of those.

2

Of course, as I like to joke: if you went to American companies and you were like, “hey, what would you say if I suggested you should run all you of your business and store your data in France, under French and EU jurisdiction,” I highly doubt their answer would be “totes McGoats, love it, call up Wipro and let’s migrate that shit!”

The next bottleneck for enterprise AI: data

Lots of links below, plus some sovereign cloud thinking from EU people in the Logoff.

Access to data shouldn’t be holding you can from enterprise AI radicalness

To make enterprise AI useful, you need your data:

Gartner Inc. predicts that organizations will develop 80% of Generative AI (GenAI) business applications on their existing data management platforms by 2028. This approach will reduce the complexity and time required to deliver these applications by 50%.

And, it’d good to spend a lot of time making sure you’ve got good data management and access because “without a unified management approach, adopting these scattered technologies leads to longer delivery times and potential sunk costs for organizations.”

Along with managing your AI usage - hosting your own models or brokering access to others - we’ve bundled together data and data management into the Tanzu Platform. The important part is that you can run Tanzu Platform on-premises, so it’s a lot easier to work with your existing data sets and enterprise-y silos. And, you get full control over your data and apps (see Logoff below for one angle on why that’s important).

And, since this integrates with Spring, you’re Java developers are set to go. But, also all those python apps can work easily with it too: you just point them at the Tanzu Platform AI end-points.

For many organizations - our current customers - there’s something even better. You don’t have to wait for a contract renewal window and then six of 12 months of putting it in place and finally turning it on. All you to have all of this: you’ve got it, pre-approved, already running, paid for, compliant and secure.

Why go through all that migration and procurement hassle when you have what you need?

(If you want to find out if you have the Tanzu Platform at your work, ask me, I’ll find out right quick.)

The Cowthorpe oak, Jacob George Strutt, 1826.

Maketing Plan

Check out this quick overview of how to put together a (mostly enterprise) software marketing plan. There’s all sorts of methods, forms (in both portrait and landscape mode), but, come on: just use this one as the base, change it if needed, and get on with the work.

Relevant to your interests

  • Tanzu reboots CloudHealth with enhancements to broaden FinOps use

  • Broadcom’s Private Cloud Outlook 2025 Report Reveals Definitive Cloud Reset - “More than half (53%) of survey respondents say private cloud is their top priority for deploying new workloads over the next three years, while 69% are considering workload repatriation from public to private cloud, with one-third having already done so. Private cloud is also now a strategic equal for AI and cloud-native apps, with 66% preferring to run container and Kubernetes-based applications on private cloud or a mix of public and private, while 55% prefer private cloud for AI model training, tuning and inference.”

  • Dynamic Tool Updates in Spring AI’s Model Context Protocol

  • Better, Faster, Smarter: What’s New with Tanzu RabbitMQ 4.1

  • United Airlines CEO: ‘We’re probably doing more AI than anyone’ - Finding what AI is useful for: ”’We started with an enormous number of [AI] use cases, and we whittled it down to the use cases that we want to spend money on,' COO and President John Waldron said during an investor conference last week. Enterprises can’t chase every lead. The share of companies abandoning most of their AI initiatives bumped up to 42% this year, compared to 17% last year, according to analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence.”

  • Is AI just going to end up being about programming? - I think there’s about a 30% chance that the answer is yet. // Rather: AI is good at text. If you can get it into text, and you want text as the output: easy win.

  • The Prompt Engineering Playbook for Programmers

  • Docling: An open-source tool kit for advanced document processing - Looks useful for getting precious text out of the PDF silo, from IBM.

  • MCP Is the New Control Point in AI—Are CIOs Ready for the Lock-In Battle? - They get the date of the spec’s release wrong (it was November 2024), and it has that Futurum cable TV news vibe, but good points are made, e.g.: “Will MCP remain truly portable, or will each vendor implement its own variation, selectively supporting features that reinforce its ecosystem? Early adopters should insist on full transparency in vendor MCP roadmaps, including plans for multi-cloud portability, third-party agent integration, and auditability of memory objects.” // There’s always someone to call lock-in FUD first - yes, and: good points made for any tech adoption in enterprises.

  • MCP Is RSS for AI: More Use Cases for Model Context Protocol - I like this: “I’m inclined to think of MCP as RSS for AI.” // Once prompts are used as intended - to be user initiated activity in the UI, we’ll see if things evolve. Think of an MCP prompt as adding a new button, or command to the UI…sort of. Most MCP things now are “tools” reading data or writing data, the AI puts some text into the tool, some text comes out. But, the tool user is the AI, not the human. Of course, the human can tell the AI to use it. We have demos of configuring Cloud Foundry this way. An MCP prompt’s user it meant to be a human, directly typing or clicking something. This might be too nuanced of a distinction and turn out not to be useful. The MCP clients, like Claude need better implementations of it (it should start with auto-complete slash commands, the example in the MCP spec!). // Another point: the MCP spec is making a big semantic gamble on the distinction between tools, prompts, and resources. Looking at all the tools so far, the others aren’t needed to get the functionality you want, but they do seem like a cleaner design. The people writing the MCP Servers will determine if those extra semantics (prompts and resources) are useful, needed.

  • The Triad of Agent Architecture: ADK, MCP, and Cloud Run

  • What do people do all day? - Possible “can AI can replace my job?” heuristic: how long do you spend sitting at work?

  • Just because Silicon Valley is pumped to make this junk doesn’t mean people will buy it - Not a fan of AI glasses.

  • Using ChatGPT as a therapist - …people like it. Also, for the cost/benefit analysis, and the constant availability, it makes sense. // As with self-driving cars, this is also an example where we expect 100% accuracy and zero-risk from the AI and ignore the fact that humans (human therapists in this example) are not 100% perfect…usually far from it. // This is maybe the number one not-tech, not-work usage I hear about from normies.

  • Beyond Launch - Establish platform metrics early on. Not only to report on, but to mind-program people what to expect and how to think of ROI. Otherwise, the only way they’ll metric your platform is by “is it cheaper than it was last time.” // ‘In enterprise environments, silence gets interpreted as stagnation. Stakeholders will assume “if I’m not hearing about progress, there probably isn’t any” - and they’re usually right!’

  • Nine Rules for Evaluating New Technology - It should be cheaper, better, and not cause a lot of bullshit.

  • How to Lead an All-Hands After Delivering Bad News - “Create a shared mental model to make sure your team understands what the new context means for how they work together.” // That and, people also want to know: how will I know if I’m next and what I can do to prevent it?

  • We waited 20 years for this! Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff on an Informatica long game as growth re-emerges as a corporate priority

  • Red Hat Summit 2025: AI, Virtualization, Hybrid Cloud, And The Future Of Enterprise IT

  • Cloud Repatriation is Getting Complicated - The repatriation thought-leading is taking hold. Even the bomb thrower is soaking in the ambient thought leadering!

  • Google Study: 65% of Developer Time Wasted Without Platforms - Better get a platform. // ‘Intriguingly, 86% of the survey’s respondents also said they believe that "platform engineering is essential to realizing the full business value of AI. " // “At the same time, a vast majority of companies view AI as a catalyst for advancing platform engineering, with 94% of organizations identifying AI to be ‘Critical’ or ‘Important’ to the future of platform engineering.”’

  • Reinvent the Wheel - ”Reinvent for insight. Reuse for impact.” // Yes, and: so long as the value of insight isn’t outweighed by the cost and risk of having to rewire all your day two stuff: how ops people manage and run it in production.

  • A New Look, A Clear Path - New IDC branding, logo, etc.

  • Donald Trump’s digital landgrab - File under “sovereign cloud”: “The state department is now claiming otherwise: if you’re on the internet and using a service provided by a US tech company, they say, then Donald Trump sets the rules. The US is quietly declaring sovereignty over cyberspace and expecting the world to acquiesce, making an unprecedented digital landgrab in the name of freedom.”

  • Moody Folkloric Fantasy – The Beast of Black Keep - This guy makes great, little adventures, here’s a new one.

  • Making books that fly, fold, wrap, hide, pop up, twist, and turn : books for kids to make - …and adults.

  • 6 Fixes For Your Solo TTRPG Campaign

  • On the pleasure of reading private notebooks - Diaries (“journals”) and notebooks are the best, I love them as well. // “I think this is because our genuine thoughts (and interests) are more detailed and alive than the simulations we have of what we should say (or be interested in). When we think no one listens, we relax into the genuine. I’ve been told, repeatedly, that I hide my most interesting thoughts in the footnotes.” // “This is, I think, at the root of why I like reading private notes so much. There are so few places where we get to be close to other people and see the messy humanity they carry behind the identities they have polished for society life.” // There’s a certain kind of “comfort in knowing you’re not the only one” therapy in that.

The Begger’s Oak, Jacob Strutt George, 1826.

Wastebook

  • “unhappens” Here.

  • JSON repatriation.

  • We were promised sentient computes, and all we got was call center automation.

  • Whatever the size, you probably only need half that sandwich.

  • “I need you to be helpful, not tell me everything that is wrong.”

  • TACO: “Trump Always Chickens Out” - Also from here.

  • “If my mom wanted good art on her fridge, she could’ve purchased reprints of works by Vermeer, Lichtenstein, Wyeth, etc. But she didn’t want good art – she wanted my art.”

  • “‘Paul Graham has published a blog post where he is wrong about something’ is not a news item so much as expected background radiation of contemporary life.” maya.land.

  • the soulless colleague, Val Thoermer.

  • Emotional support ice-pack.

Elm at Crawley in Sussex, Jacob George Strutt, 1826.

Logoff

I’m watching The European Sovereign Cloud Day today. The opening talk by David Michels is really going hard on the Trump means you need to get out of the US cloud market. Two quotes so far:

  • “Will the US government hand over your data without informing you?”

  • “Does Donald Trump have a big red button her can press to cut you off from your cloud service?”

What kind of data should you be FUD’ing about? Here’s a slide:

That’s the data, pushing that “big red button” is something most people probably don’t think of. The US government can just tell American companies to shut off access, you know, like impose sanctions. It’s already happened to the International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, whose email was shut off by Microsoft:

The blocked access, enforced by Microsoft, means Khan can no longer read messages sent to his official account. The decision, directly tied to U.S. foreign policy, reportedly underscores the vulnerability of Dutch public institutions that depend on American tech infrastructure. The incident has reignited political debate about the extent to which the Netherlands can—and should—continue relying on Microsoft.

That stuff makes cloud a lot different for Europeans…and any “sovereign” state or group.

Of course, the same applies to any country. The EU drives all those little cookie pop-ups, but also means I can use USB-C cables for all my devices. I don’t mind those so much, really.

Still a lot - private cloud check-in, Spring 2025

Where are the workloads?

Let’s check in on how much private there is nowadays. I think it’s somewhere in the range of 40% to 60% of workloads1 globally. If you narrow down to “enterprises” (let’s say organization that have 5,000, even 10,000 employees), my sense is that the number goes way up, maybe 70%.

The way I think about the question “how much private cloud is there?” is “where are all the applications and services running.” I think most people think of that question in terms of revenue, market-share - a way of thinking that my 401(k) is way into as a sense-making tool, but doesn’t reflect how people should make strategic choices in IT.

And, yes, I’m obviously biased, swimming around in big, C.R.E.A.M-y pools of WYSIATI. I work at a company that is focused on building and selling private PaaS. That’s why I spend so much time gathering charts and anecdata on private cloud.

Oh, also, if you want a PaaS - or, “platform” if you prefer - you should use ours, the Tanzu Platform. It’s proven, used by all sort of enterprises, and, you know, just works.

Back to pondering…

My last private cloud check-in was July of 2024. The conclusions haven’t changed much since then, which part of the conclusion, I guess.

Here’s the charts and analysis I currently use at the tail end of Spring 2025, plus some new items from this week.

The Charts

Source: IDC, IDC Cloud Pulse, 3Q24: Executive Summary — Vendor Perception, doc #US51134624, December 2024. n=1,724 IT decision makers, developers and LOB cloud influencers and decision makers; 35% tech companies, 25% 1k to 4.9k staff, 25% 5k+ staff.

A chart like this has a lot of nuance. It’s the most recent IDC CloudPulse, one of the few analyst surveys/reports that asks the question “where are the workloads?” They don’t like to call it “private cloud,” and instead prefer “dedicated environment.” I assume the Q3 2028 numbers are estimates - IDC’s valuation would be a lot higher if they had a time machine.

They don’t like you using older data, which makes sense. Their methodology can change over the years. Here’s a screenshot of that represents my thinking, synthesis, and sloppy reconciling of surveys over the years:

Note: Assuming lack of time machine technology availably, 2026 is an estimate. Source: Coté’s mind-palace.

Here, you see a steady state. We could call it 50/50.

That steady state matches up with a Goldman survey of CIO’s plans for cloud migration. I haven’t found an update on this, so it’s same as last time:

AI eats the world 1.4.006.png
Sources: Goldman Sachs CIO Surveys, curated by Benedict Evans in “The AI Summer,” July, 2024.

What you see in that chart is that CIOs are always going on about moving more workloads to public cloud, but they move a lot less than planned.2 The workloads stay where they are. And here, in January 2024, the % of workloads in private cloud was ~30%. That’s a lot less than the IDC numbers.

Now, I’ve tried to track down the PDFs for these surveys to understand them better, check methodology and definitions, etc., but never found them. Slides Benedict is reliable enough though, so I’ll trust he (and/or his intern) has done the work. As such, I use this chart more as vibe-check for charts than a primary ponder.

There’s a few more charts (this one in particular, and this one is pretty good too) that you should check out if you care about all this. I went over a full round-up of them at cfgmgmtcamp back in February as well.

What the ^F50*$ are up to

And then, there’s this anecdata:

[W]e do have a lot of large customers that are running in AWS in the cloud today, and a huge number of them still have massive amounts of their estate on-premise. And so there’s a huge amount of growth available there. You can even take our largest customers, many of them only have 10, 20, 30, or 40 percent of their workloads in the cloud.

Matt Garman, AWS CEO, January, 2025

I put this under anecdata because the scoping isn’t specified and you can really go all confirmation bias on it. You can read it as saying that in large enterprises, anywhere between 60% and 90% of their workloads are running on private cloud. Of course, Garman might be talking about just two customers, or 500, or 50. Who knows! (And, what about the ones that are not AWS customers?)

Also, stating numbers like is about making sure you’re building in future growth into your share price. The point of the above is saying “and we’re going to get those workloads, think of all the future revenue!” - a variation on the “your margin is my opportunity” bit.

Moving back to private cloud

And then, we have Corey Quinn, this week on cloud repatriation:

Five years ago, I fairly confidently stated that Cloud Repatriation Isn’t a Thing, and I by and large stand by what I wrote. That said, it’s 2025, and the story has changed…

He goes on to list the reasons you’d move workloads from public cloud back to private cloud: lowering costs, especially for companies that are no longer in ZiRP-growth mode and data sovereignty.

This last part is the Trump effect - despite possible TACO safe-guards, does the rest of the world (business and government) want to run their business under the jurisdiction of Trump? Just like the US tech-folk go nuts when the EU calls the shots: nope. (Sure do like that USB-C on my Apple devices tho…)

Now, you have to be careful with repatriation surveys. What you want to know is not if they are doing (or even planning) repatriation, but how many workloads they’re moving (or plan to move). There’s a big difference between repatriating one or two workloads (like DHH or, as Corey recalls, Dropbox), or hundreds.

What caught my attention in Corey’s post though was that the repatriation thought-leader’ing has reached him, and enough for him to post about it! He could be making fun of AWS, but instead he’s talking about enterprise cloud repatriation.

The relevant Barclays survey is from April 2024, was promoted by Michael Dell in the same month, and showed up at VMware Explore in August, 2024. That thought-leader’ing has legs.3

(Checking out the original PDF is worth it for other fun charts, if you’re into these kinds of things.)

March 6 to April 4, 2025 Broadcom Survey

My employer has a new survey out on the private cloud use question (here’s a direct PDF link).

First, one of the charts on reparation:

Source: "Private Cloud Outlook 2025 The Cloud Reset," Broadcom/Illuminas, 1,800 senior IT decision‑makers, globally, 64% from large enterprises of 5,000+ employees, conducted March and April, 2025.

I like it when a chart breaks down into categories as seen here: what are the characteristics/needs of the workloads being moved. Security is always on-top of the list (see below), and then the next two are about working with existing enterprise apps and systems. The forth - customer facing - is important because it tells you that the apps are important for the business.

The new workloads

Now, my “where are the workloads” focus is about where the existing workloads are. From the above, it feels like the answer has been the same (40% or 50% or 60% - whatever, you get the idea) for a while.

One reason is probably “because it works fine, don't screw with it.” Another reason might be because there hasn’t really been many new app types since, maybe, the 2010’s. In those years, enterprises was freaking the fuck out about “digital” and were rushing to get better at software, driving a bunch of new apps which dragged in a bunch of new infrastructure.

The survey doesn’t address my core question (how many workloads are on private cloud versus public cloud), but it does cover sentiments and plans for app placement. For example, as Raakhee Mistry summarizes:

When asked to identify each of their top cloud priorities, the most cited 3-year priority was to build new workloads in private cloud environments (53%)… 84% of organizations are using private cloud for both traditional and modern applications.

What those workloads are isn’t specified. But, from what people are saying AI is driving a lot of new workloads. After a year of PoC’ing and puttering around with python, followed by some planning and annual budget begging in Fall 2025, 2026 might be the year where enterprises start adding AI into a lot existing apps and making new apps - we’ll see!

The survey gives us a couple of interesting bits on this AI growth workload pondering. First, what are the “challenges” for doing AI? You can reframe “challenges” as “needs” or, simply, “requirements”4:

Source: see previous chart.

Security is always the #1 in concern. It’s both true and virtue-signaling: “What? Nah, we’re not worried about security,” said no IT survey respondent ever.

The second bar down is more interesting. The need to integrate with existing apps and data shows that people are not thinking of net-new, stand alone application, but ways of augmenting/improving their existing apps and, thus, businesses. This is great! It means they’re looking to get better at the bulk of what they do, not just play in the margins like making videos of a crooning grizzly bears in a lounge to, presumably, sell more Instagram cuff-links.

It’s also easy to imagine that with AI we’ll encounter data gravity again. That is, all that data and existing apps and services are on the private cloud (and will stay there), so your new apps will need some way to connect with them. See the surveys above for the important of integrating with data and existing apps!

This think pairs up with the last chart I use now, one from another Broadcom/VMware sponsored report in December 2025:

Source: IDC White Paper, sponsored by Broadcom, On-Premises AI Infrastructure Balances Innovation and Security, doc #US52747024 December, 2024. Conducted July, 2024, n=411.

There, you can see that people are planning on deploying ~50% of their models on-premises. That’s not apps, sure, but if the model is on-premises, chances are high the apps will be there too.

The Beginning of the Last Inning

So, for many of years now, the number of workloads on private cloud seems to be holding steady. There’s a strong possibility that a new type of application, AI, will drive interest in doing a lot of new applications. For those AI apps, data and access to existing enterprise goop is needed. Some people are pondering repatriation, at least enough for Corey to skip the opportunity to take more pot-shots at Kubernetes.

It must all mean something!

I joked in that February talk that the cloud people love talking about being in the first inning of a baseball game. Based on thorough joke-analysis of these “early in the first inning” quotes over the years, I estimated that this means the public cloud baseball game will wrap either in 2027 or 2068, with 2042 being somewhere in the middle:

If the game ended now, we’d be at a 50/50 split or so, bouncing around lazily over the years. Based on things in the last days of Spring 2025, I’m guessing we’re finally further into the last inning than just barely into the first.

Logoff

That’s it for today. I have three things to self-promote, though:

  1. My post first post in a series on writing MCP Servers for D&D. Hopefully the second will be up very soon, corporate copy editors and The New Stack CMS’ers willing.

  2. I was super thrilled to interview Taegan Goddard on Whitney and I’s podcast. I really like his, I don’t know, blog, Political Wire and admire him as a indie publishing empire.

  3. And, this week’s Software Defined Talk is fun, take a listen.

//

Oh, also, I asked ChatGPT to “make a picture of what you think I look like in a style you think I would I appreciate,” and it has a sort of Marc Maron if he were a hedge-wizard feel, don’t you think?

…enjoy your weekend.

1

Hey, The Kids, I’m sorry to be old. I use the term “workloads” to mean “stuff you run on your computers.” If it feels weird, sub-in the word “applications,” but keep in mind it should be something more like, “applications and services.”

2

As some of my snarkier enterprise friends like to say, cloud migrations are a 1 and half CIO job. The first CIO will launch the initiative, but leave after three years before it’s done, require the next one to spend half their time on it. Of course, it could turn into a 2 CIO job.

3

Here's some further commentary on the Barclays chart from Larry Walsh, August, 2024: “The problem with the 83% figure is that it represents companies, not workloads. So if 83% of enterprises decide to move one workload from the public cloud to their local infrastructure, the number remains true.”

4

Also, “shit that keeps the CIO up at night.”

@cote@hachyderm.io, @cote@cote.io, @cote, https://proven.lol/a60da7, @cote@social.lol