Link: Your Uber Car Creates Congestion. That May Cost You More To Ride. – New York Times

“About 103,000 for-hire vehicles operate in the city, more than double the roughly 47,000 in 2013, according to the Taxi and Limousine Commission. Of those, 68,000 are affiliated with ride-hailing app companies, including 65,000 with Uber alone, though they may also provide rides for others. In contrast, yellow taxis are capped by city law at just under 13,600.”

On the other hand, it’s probably easier to get around, even if slower. And, you know, how are you gonna solve for the density of Manhattan, esp. if people don’t want to foot the bill for lots of mass transit?
Link to original

Companies that loose billions have a hard time being successful

How all these unprofitable companies sustaining high valuations:

bending reality today has three elements: a vision, fast growth, and financing.

But:

A few firms other than Amazon have defied the odds. Over the past 20 years Las Vegas Sands, a casino firm, Royal Caribbean, a cruise-line company, and Micron Technology, a chip-maker, each lost $1bn or more for two consecutive years and went on to prosper. But the chances of success are slim. Of the current members of the Russell 1000 index, since 1997 only 37 have lost $1bn or more for at least two years in a row. Of these, 21 still lose money.

Source: SchumpeterFirms that burn up $1bn a year are sexy but statistically doomed

Gig jobs have high churn, ~40-60% after a year

https://www.theatlas.com/charts/SypDOTv-x

Lots of charts that show a large percentage of workers leave after a year. Also, as better jobs come about, if wages don’t rise in gig jobs, churn will be even higher:

“It doesn’t look like [gig work] is becoming more lucrative for people,” says Fiona Greig, co-author on the JPMorgan Chase Institute report. “As the labor force strengthens in general, more and more people have better options.”

Source: People are quitting gig jobs in the sharing economy — Quartz

Why do you have to burn $4bn to add mobile apps to taxis?

In the first quarter of this year, Uber lost about $520 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to people familiar with the matter. In the second quarter the losses significantly exceeded $750 million, including a roughly $100 million shortfall in the U.S., those people said. That means Uber’s losses in the first half of 2016 totaled at least $1.27 billion.

Meanwhile, revenue:

Bookings grew tremendously from the first quarter of this year to the second, from above $3.8 billion to more than $5 billion. Net revenue, under generally accepted accounting principles, grew about 18 percent, from about $960 million in the first quarter to about $1.1 billion in the second.

It’s expensive to start a global, meat-space business, even if you’re “assetless”:

Uber, which is seven years old, has lost at least $4 billion in the history of the company.

I find the continuous usage of Uber as an example of “the way forward” in business unhelpful. Not because it’s not an interesting business, but because without these kinds of numbers in context, you think it’s easy. If you’re prepared to burn through $4bn before profit, sure thing!

The advantage established businesses should have is less spending to build a market: they just need to do better serving their existing customer base at first, not spend all that money to start from zero. What I find devilishly fascinating is why it’s so hard for those large organizations to take advantage of the assets they already have and why, possibly, it’s easier just to start from scratch, as Uber has been doing with that $4bn.

Source: Uber Loses at Least $1.2 Billion in First Half of 2016

Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

Starting later this month, Uber will allow customers in downtown Pittsburgh to summon self-driving cars from their phones, crossing an important milestone that no automotive or technology company has yet achieved. Google, widely regarded as the leader in the field, has been testing its fleet for several years, and Tesla Motors offers Autopilot, essentially a souped-up cruise control that drives the car on the highway. Earlier this week, Ford announced plans for an autonomous ride-sharing service. But none of these companies has yet brought a self-driving car-sharing service to market.

See also Ford an update on Ford’s efforts here and Ben Thompson’s analysis of this market from January.</p

Source: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

Software is eating the world, change or die!, and other business memes

I’ve been working on a piece for the Pivotal blog exploring what the hell “software eating the world” actually is and means, esp. as it related to that other hallowed mantra of keynotes: “change or die!”

Here’s the intro so far:

Pretty much every macro-level keynote in our industry covers the three horsemen of the digital apocalypse:

  1. Software is eating the world!
  2. Businesses must change or die!
  3. Buy our products/services!

Trust me, as an analyst I would see these three horsemen about once a day. I got to know those horses well and even let them store the occasional turkey in my fridge when they had family over for Thanksgiving. They’re nice, as bringers of apocalypses go.

Few things rankle me more than a business meme I’m forced to hear over and over. I’m left to delight myself with whatever new clip-art the presenter will use. I’ve always been curious to investigate the validity of the horsemen. The third one, of course, is evaluated on a case by case basis, but if you follow the citation chain for the first two, to get lost in a dense forest of leprechauns, if there’s any citations at all.

So, I thought I’d start checking in on these two bedrock ideas more:

  1. What does “software is eating the world” really mean, and is it really on a tear like a starved man at a Shoney’s?
  2. Are businesses really facing such an existential crisis that they need to dramatically change? Should we expect them to change?

Now if I can just work “third platform” in there, I’ll win bingo! “Bi-modal IT” for triple word score ;>

In putting it together, I’ve currated a few charts, not all of which I’ll be using, but here they are for those of you who like charts:

PCs vs. post-PCs from Gartner

Gartner's global computer counting

This is good for when you want to go over the foot-print for “computers” and/or show relative market-share between “mobile” and PCs.

Source: Gartner 2012, 2013; 2014 to 2016

Embedded Software, 2009 edition

Sample of embedded software, 2009

Back in 2009, the embedded systems market was around €160bn… More recent estimats (from IDC, it seems) put the embedded market at around €1.5 trillion.

Uber’s rumored growth by net revenue

Uber's rumored net revenue

330% CAGR!

Source: “Uber Expands Funding Round as Revenue Growth Accelerates,” Wall Street Journal, Feb 18, 2015.