Four years ago, in October 2013, 451 Research reported that OpenStack cloud revenues were approximately $600 million in 2013. In April 2016, 451 Research reported that 2015 OpenStack ecosystem revenues came in at $1.2 billion, with a forecast to grow to $3.37 billion by 2018.
Now in November 2017, 451 Research is out with it latest OpenStack market sizing report, estimating 2017 OpenStack ecosystem revenue at $2.6 billion. Looking forward, 451 Research is forecasting that OpenStack market revenues will reach $6.7 billion by 2021
The enterprise collaboration software vendor said it earned 12 cents a share, three cents ahead of the consensus estimate. Revenue climbed 41.7% year over year to $193.8 million, also above the $185.8 million analysts had forecasted.
You know what they say: developers don’t pay for anything.
Someone either needs to acquire Atlassian, it has to start acquiring companies, or if the private cloud thing becomes cemented, they need to work with the public cloud three to build out the private cloud toolchain. IBM and CA are the traditional ALM/SDLC acquirers (with occasional raids by the Microsoft barbarians), but that doesn’t seem likely anymore?
Here, maybe Oracle if they double down on appdev for their new PaaS: retaining their existing Java+Oracle DB empire, feeding it into PaaS? That’s a bit too ornate of a strategy for such as big asset as Atlassian, though.
There’s always PE for big bundling plays, but what would the PE exit strategy be?
Source: At Last! Atlassian Surges on Strong Earnings, Forecast
Oracle reports its PaaS and IaaS revenue together, which makes understanding its IaaS growth difficult. FY16 to FY17 revenue increased from $0.9bn to $1.4bn, equivalent to 60% YoY growth. The company claims to have added 14,000 IaaS and PaaS customers to OCI since its inception, almost all of them existing customers of its licensed software. Oracle’s overall revenue in 2016 was $37bn, so IaaS and PaaS still represent a small slice of the pie.
The report has, of course, more detail on the portfolio, e.g.:
A challenge Oracle faced from the beginning was its tardiness to the market. Sure, it could copy and perhaps improve upon existing public cloud offerings, but it would have to do it faster than the rest of the market. AWS, for example, has over 70 services, so there is a lot of ground to cover. Over the past year, Oracle has released 50 services and features – starting from bare-metal compute and storage, the company has added virtual machines, databases, database clustering, load balancers, audit capability, compliance, monitoring, logging, authentication and new images. From a single datacenter in Phoenix, it has expanded to Ashburn, Virginia, and Frankfurt; it is targeting London for early 2018 and APAC further down the line. It has also released and open-sourced a new serverless capability called Fn and a Docker-native platform called Fn Flow for composing serverless applications. The company hopes to distinguish its serverless offering by making it cloud-agnostic, although Java is first among equals in terms of supported languages. Oracle realizes that its capability isn’t as broad as AWS’s, but its rate of development shows it can achieve a lot in a short amount of time.
In 451 Research’s Voice of the Enterprise: Hosting & Cloud Managed Services, Organizational Dynamics 2017 report, 44% of 515 respondents stated that they would pay a premium for an enhanced SLA on performance/uptime; 34% stated that they would pay a premium for enhanced customer support. The median premium for these enhancements was about 20%. Buyers see value in services way beyond just the basics. The challenge for Oracle is convincing customers that it offers the best capability for the best price – there are others in the market with stronger credentials and reputations. stronger credentials and reputations.
Source: Oracle stays the course on IaaS
Shareholders will also be asked to approve a $500m return of value, approximately $2.09 per share,” the statement to the City added.
Well, who doesn’t like money?
That said, performance is declining:
The [HPE Software?] business has shrunk in recent years, with turnover dropping from $4.06bn in fiscal 2012 ended 31 October to $3.19bn in fiscal 2016. Profit before tax during that period slipped too. In HPE’s Q1 ended January, sales in the software arm fell 8 per cent year-on-year to $721m.
All that M&A didn’t work out too well:
The software division at HPE is made up of a collection of separate units including Autonomy, Mercury Interactive, ArcSight, three businesses that alone cost HPE more than $16bn to acquire. Other elements include Vertica (buy price undisclosed) and relatively smaller IT management ops outfits.
For more context, see my notebook on the HPE/Micro Focus merger back in September, 2016.
The largest cooler, the Tundra 350, costs $1,300. The company recorded $469 million in revenue in 2015.
In other Yeti news, the company said Thursday it has settled a lawsuit against another cooler maker that it accused of copying its product design. Texas-based RTIC Coolers has agreed to pay Yeti, stop selling all of the offending products and redesign its coolers, according to an announcement.
Stock up on rip-off Yeti cups while you can!
Passed from one PE firm to another: from Insight Venture Partners to Thoma Bravo. Sort of, one piece of coverage says “Insight Venture Partners will maintain its original 2014 capital investment in company.”
Carl Lehmann (he’s popped up a lot recently here!) and Liam Rogers at 451 have some numbers estimates:
Thoma Bravo’s acquisition of Planview comes three years after Insight Venture Partners acquired the WRM software company for an estimated $150m. The latest acquisition comes well above that – we estimate the deal size to be $800m. The multiple paid for the business is also substantially higher than the last purchase of Planview, which generated $175m in revenue in 2016. Insight will maintain an equity stake in the company, and Thoma Bravo becomes the new majority owner.
From Nancy Gohring:
In 2015, Dynatrace recorded $466.6m in revenue, including $30m from services and $60m from SIGOS, the mobile network-testing company that Keynote acquired in 2006. Dynatrace’s APM revenue was $376.6m, representing 15% growth over the previous year, and making it twice as large by revenue as two of its primary competitors – New Relic and AppDynamics.
She writes fine reports.
In the first quarter of this year, Uber lost about $520 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to people familiar with the matter. In the second quarter the losses significantly exceeded $750 million, including a roughly $100 million shortfall in the U.S., those people said. That means Uber’s losses in the first half of 2016 totaled at least $1.27 billion.
Bookings grew tremendously from the first quarter of this year to the second, from above $3.8 billion to more than $5 billion. Net revenue, under generally accepted accounting principles, grew about 18 percent, from about $960 million in the first quarter to about $1.1 billion in the second.
It’s expensive to start a global, meat-space business, even if you’re “assetless”:
Uber, which is seven years old, has lost at least $4 billion in the history of the company.
I find the continuous usage of Uber as an example of “the way forward” in business unhelpful. Not because it’s not an interesting business, but because without these kinds of numbers in context, you think it’s easy. If you’re prepared to burn through $4bn before profit, sure thing!
The advantage established businesses should have is less spending to build a market: they just need to do better serving their existing customer base at first, not spend all that money to start from zero. What I find devilishly fascinating is why it’s so hard for those large organizations to take advantage of the assets they already have and why, possibly, it’s easier just to start from scratch, as Uber has been doing with that $4bn.
“After two years in business, Casper is on track to book $200 million in sales over the next year, but its success isn’t ensured.”
Also, a new category phrase: “the digitally native vertical brand.”
There’s a new release of Pivotal Cloud Foundry out this week. We’ve been seeing great pick-up from customers, and the nature of conversations I’ve been seeing while visiting them has been changing from operations, IaaS-driven topics to discussions about improving application development and delivery. This release also reflects that shift “up the stack.” Here’s my brief take on how things are going for Pivotal Cloud Foundry.
The most typical path to using Pivotal Cloud Foundry
First, this is how I see most customers arriving at Pivotal Cloud Foundry:
Who does Pivotal see as their toughest competition? According to Watters, that distinction belongs to AWS. Cloud customers often believe that AWS itself is enough. [James] Watters says that there wouldn’t even be the concept of cloud-native apps without Amazon, but “people need more than just Amazon to be successful.” Watters believes that some of Pivotal’s best customers are those who first tried to creates platforms themselves, but then asked “what’s the right thing to do for my organization?”
The rest of the piece is a good, brief overview of the new feature in Pivotal Cloud Foundry 1.6.
What I see in this release is a movement “up the stack” to address application architecture and development concerns. You can see this in the incorporation of Spring Cloud (which supports, among many other things, a microservices approach), support for .Net (almost every large organization wants and needs this for the way they develop applications), and the numerous integrations with ALM tools (like Cloudbees, GitLabs, etc.).
For many years – and still! – the focus of “cloud” has been on the infrastructure layer: setting up the “operating system” for the cloud, your big datacenter, and everything that results in that magical blinking cursor:
I think of this as the “blinking cursor” problem. You know that softly pulsing cursor: it’s the result of millions —if not billions! — of dollars spent on cloud projects. These “private cloud” projects see companies redoing how their IT department provides infrastructure. They move from physical to virtual management; move from manual ticket processing to self-service, automated provisioning; and after efforts that must have seemed like building all of the furniture for a new IKEA store with just a pocket knife, they might end up with their own cloud. And then, after all of this, they’ve gotten the blinking cursor up! The servers are ready to use! Now the hard work of designing, developing, deploying, and managing the applications that run the business starts. There is little wonder that 95% of folks in [a poll asking “what went wrong with your private cloud project?”] were not completely satisfied with their private cloud projects.
I still see much of the conversation centering around getting the blinking curser up, and too little on how to create and manage good applications. So, obviously I like our new positioning “up the stack,” not only providing application-centric services, cloud-ified middleware, and the operations capabilities needed keep those application up and running.
In addition to the actual product, you can see this reflected on the team (the evangelist/advocate/community team) I’m on where we’ve added people who focus on explaining how to do better software development, in addition to the more operations-centric people we started with.
Momentum: customer and ecosystem growth and character
Momentum wise, I measure Pivotal Cloud Foundry based on customers and the overall Cloud Foundry ecosystem.
Customer wise, we’ve gone from about $40m in bookings in 2014 to a $100m annual bookings run-rate this year. Those are two, slightly different type numbers, but you can get a feel for the amount of business we’ve been doing, and more important, the high growth and fast traction we’re getting. What I like about out customer base is that they’re everyday, big brands and companies. This not only means I can better explain what I do to my non-tech friends and relatives, but also means we have a sustainable customer base: these Global 2,000 customers aren’t going away anytime soon, esp. if they keep up the strategy that brought them to Pivotal Cloud Foundry: transforming to a software defined business.
There’s a Cloud Foundry Summit this week in Berlin and it evidenced the ecosystem momentum around Cloud Foundry, the open source project that Pivotal Cloud Foundry is based on. There’s now just north of 50 members. When you look at those logos notice how many non-tech companies are on there: it’s still mostly tech companies who want to use or extend Cloud Foundry, but there’s a delightful number of non-tech companies who want to support the platform that’s supporting their business. And, of course, the work with Microsoft to support .Net brings that whole ecosystem very close as well. As I mentioned above, many of the every organization I talk with really wants .Net support. Another interesting thing to watch is growth in use of Azure; that’s an option that I hear companies exploring a lot now-a-days, and, indeed, as Microsoft said in the press around this release, “[t]he demand for Azure was so high that we already have Fortune 100 customers building their next-generation applications with Pivotal Cloud Foundry on Azure.”
Obviously, working at Pivotal I’m highly biased on all this. Still, I think there’s good evidence that things are panning out. My main hope, as always, is that we can help improve the state of software, globally, and, thus, improve how organizations are operating.
More on Pivotal Cloud Foundry 1.6:
- An overview of what’s in Pivotal Cloud Foundry 1.6
- Details on Spring Cloud – “SCS 1.0 operationalizes components from Spring Cloud, making them available as managed services within the Pivotal Cloud Foundry marketplace, including a configuration server, service registry, and circuit breaker dashboard service. SCS fully automates the installation, configuration, deployment, and management of these infrastructure components.”
- Press release covering 1.6
- There’s a 1.6 overview webinar on Nov 19th if you’d like to hear more.