The wider Cloud Native ecosystem is, however, a very disparate and confused place. We anticipate a significant level of consolidation over the next twelve to eighteen months with some clear winners emerging. The emergence of several opinionated distributions of Kubernetes is hardly a surprise and this space will expand a little further before settling down.
“[Gartner analyst Arup Roy] said Indian [IT services] companies, for example, should not expect double-digit sales revenue growth in 2017, adding that ‘a sub 10% growth for 2017 is certain.'”
But, the effect is likely to be on all large organizations who have been globalizing IT staffing:
“There is really no such thing as the Indian IT services sector. All companies would be affected. For example, Capgemini employs more people in India that in any other country. Legislation does not differentiate between Infosys, Capgemini or Accenture,” said Schumacher.
In 2013, German car manufacturer Daimler said it planned to achieve savings of €150m a year by bringing IT services in-house and expanding IT operations in India and Turkey. In 2012, General Motors said it would insource around 90% of its heavily outsourced IT operations.
We talked about more “Trump’s possible effects on tech” in last week’s Software Defined Talk, with some extensive links and notes in the show notes if you don’t want to fill your ear-holes.
In the last 15 years, application delivery has moved from being bound to physical servers to running on virtual machines with a full operating system and now to containers with Docker where developers can specify every aspect of deployment, he added.
The move has also been a shift from a heavyweight application deployment model to a lightweight model that takes less time to start up and deploy applications. Additionally, there has been a move from being bound to a single closed-source vendor to an open-source model with multiple vendors, less risk of lock-in and more choice.
And, on the maturity front:
not all organizations are ready for the move, according to Donnie Berkholz, research director at 451 Group. He pointed to a recent survey his firm conducted that found that most IT organizations are still running lots of manual process and aren’t in the DevOps world, and many aren’t even using agile development methods either. For cloud native to make sense, organizations need to make use of continuous integration and continuous development technologies, Berkholz said.
“You can’t do cloud native if you don’t have the right processes to support it,” Berkholz said. “For some of the world, it’s a long way to go on the journey to cloud native, and it will take at least five years to get there.”
“Based on the articles I wrote and the people I spoke with in 2015, I’d say 2016 is going to be a good one for Cloud Foundry, as well as for PaaS in general. Compared to SaaS and IaaS, PaaS is still quite small, but it’s growing.”
Microsoft Corp. wants to reach annualized revenue of $20 billion in its corporate cloud business in the fiscal year that ends in June 2018.
At the moment, it’s:
The company last week said it has a current run rate of $6.3 billion for the cloud business, which includes its Azure data-center services and cloud versions of Office software and customer management programs.
“Changing the behaviors and culture are fundamental to the success of a bimodal IT approach. We estimate that, by 2018, 90 percent of I&O organizations attempting to use DevOps without specifically addressing their cultural foundations will fail,” said Mr. Head.
“We do not advocate wholesale cultural change in a single organizationwide program. Instead, I&O leaders should focus their efforts on an initial, small Mode 2 team, establish the values and behaviors needed, and take incremental efforts to recognize and reinforce desired outcomes prior to scaling."
In more positive news, they predict 25% G2000 penitration by 2016.
For people like me who want to see more software defined businesses, some fun declarations from the third platform folks, IDC:
- By 2016, 65% of global competitive strategies will require real-time 3rd Platform IT as a service.
- By 2016, 80% of CIOs will deliver a new architectural framework that enables innovation and improved business decision making.
- By 2016, 80% of CIOs will accelerate 3rd Platform migration to counter premature obsolescence of current IT assets
So, you know, around now-ish.
From Steven Sinofsky:
As an enterprise, the pragmatic thing to do is go public cloud and operate existing infrastructure as legacy, without trying to sprinkle cloud on it or spend energy trying to deeply integrate with a cloud solution. The transition to client-server, GUI or Web all provide ample evidence in failed bridge solutions, a long tail of “wish we hadn’t done that” and few successes worth the effort. As a startup, it will be tempting to work to land customers who will pay you to be a bridge, but that will only serve to keep you behind your competitors who are skipping a hybrid solution. This is a big bet to make in 2015, and one that will be the subject of many debates.
Some good white-collar toolchain commentary too:
Gone are the days where the enterprise productivity ninja was the person who could make the richest document or presentation. The workflow of static information, in large, report-based documents making endless rounds as attachments, is looking more and more like a Selectric-created report stuffed in an interoffice envelope.
Today’s enterprise productivity ninja is someone who can get answers on their tablet while on a conference call from an offsite.
See an overview of our overview of 2015 predictions. Each practice area at 451 has been publishing theirs each week, they run about 20-30 pages. The two that my team did – on Enterprise Platforms (private cloud and cloud management, but also converged infrastructure and good old fashioned systems management and virtualication) and Development, DevOps, and Middleware – aren’t out yet, but you can bet I’ll put links to them here when they are.
Meanwhile, enjoy the infographic!
Q: Does 451 Group see 2013 as a banner year for PaaS? If so, why?
PaaS has always had the issue of being “big next year.” The nature of PaaS has shifted around so many times that it’s little wonder it’s yet to achieve escape velocity. To my mind, PaaS has come to mean “integrated middle-ware and services developers use to run cloud applications,” and in that sense I think PaaS will have an interesting year in 2014. The tools and practices behind DevOps are reaching mainstream, and the fast rise of things like Docker and mainstream hocking of Cloud Foundry are all encouraging. I still think PaaS needs to evolve to something close to that looser middle-ware-as-a-service definition than the clearly defined and contained platforms we’ve seen in years past. One thing is for sure: developers are going to keep writing application destined to live on the cloud to support web and mobile apps. It’s unclear if they’ll chose classic ideas of PaaSes (Heroku, etc.) over assembling their own middle-ware stacks with the help of things like Chef, Puppet, and Docker.
Everything I hear from the buy side of the market indicates that they’re hungry for better ways of developing and delivering cloud applications (whether to support classic web apps, mobile, or analytics applications). To me, this means a big uptick in spending in the middle-ware and developer categories, or the PaaS part of the cloud market. Companies like Pivotal Labs are premised on this opportunity, and numerous other vendors seem convinced as well.
Q: From Forbes: “Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) will attain a 41% CAGR through 2016, generating 24% of total cloud revenues. 71% of PaaS revenues will be generated by vendors over $75M in sales according to the study.” Does 451 still stand by these numbers?
As Greg Zwackman put it in Paul’s article:
Analysts at 451 Research also see improved prospects for PaaS. “For 2013, we are projecting well over 50 percent growth over 2012,” says 451 analyst Greg Zwakman. The research firm expects PaaS usage to grow 41 percent each year through 2016, to account for 24 percent of total cloud revenues.
My reply: I believe this segment of the market will grow fast and be a large part of spend. It’s clear that deploying custom written software is a large part of what cloud is used for, and developers are always looking for better mouse-traps. Also, included in these numbers if I’m right, are ALM (Application Life-cycle Management) and supporting services and tools. From what I can tell, developers are eager to move to cloud-hosted versions of these tools, and vendors like IBM are starting to respond as well.
Q: How does 451 define PaaS?
Here’s the official definition: “A PaaS is a cloud-enabled development platform designed to let developers interact with code and create running applications, without maintaining or operating the runtime.”
And the longer definition:
“PaaS is defined as a remotely hosted framework that supports the building, deployment and ongoing management of applications throughout their life-cycle (development, testing, deployment, runtime, hosting and delivery). PaaS provides the computing environment on top of the infrastructure where multiple applications share a single plat- form for development and deployment. It also provides all the tools necessary to build and deploy applications and services via a Web browser, and offers user-friendly functionality streamlining workflow collaboration and speeding up production and time to market. Included in this category are vendors that provide the entire stack of PaaS functionality and partner with third parties (i.e., hosters) for the infrastructure component, as well as those vendors that provide the infrastructure themselves. Cloud computing components of the PaaS marketplace we track include: PaaS From SaaS, Stand-Alone PaaS and Application Life-cycle Management as a Service (ALMaaS). Within the ALMaaS space, we categorize vendors in two sub-sectors: Pre-Production & Testing and Integration as a Service.”
Q: What’s next for PaaS in 2014?
This year the PaaS market needs to decide if the Cloud Foundry approach (a very loose, buffet of services that interlock together, reminiscent of J2EE vs. the more clearly defined approach you’d get on AppExchange or even Heroku) is the winner. Also, how something like Docker fits in, and by extension the idea of using Chef, Puppet, AnsibleWorks, and Salt instead of a PaaS are important. Put another way: do developers want to build their own stacks and control the configurations of them, or do they want to deploy into a more clearly defined “app server,” to use a Java analogy.