“We see PaaS as a strategic component of our software-defined infrastructure and application platform strategy,” stated SUSE President of Strategy, Alliances and Marketing Michael Miller, in a note to The New Stack, “and Cloud Foundry as the open source project and technology that brings together the best innovation and industry collaboration. We want to leverage that innovation for the benefit of our customers, and we have a vision for the convergence of CaaS technologies [in SUSE’s case, Containers as a service] like Docker and Kubernetes and PaaS technologies like Cloud Foundry that we think will address the real-world needs of our customers and partners. We will now work with the Cloud Foundry community to develop that vision.”
I keep wanting to write up the recent Cloud Foundry Foundation container survey, mixing it in with other recent container surveys. Yup, “keep wanting to.” Meanwhile, Abby wrote-up a brief overview over in O’Reilly land.
We’ve seen a goodly spate of news in the container space recently which we cover in the episode. In the second half, we talk with Kevin Hoffman about the .NET world, Steel Toe, and his book, Beyond the Twelve-Factor App. A recent survey from the Cloud Foundry Foundation is widening the framing around container management, adding in the use of Platform-as-a-Service into the usual container orchestration mix. The survey also shows some interesting results around adoption, e.g., managing containers in production ends up being more difficult than people predict during evaluations. Also since our last episode, DockerCon brought a bevy of announcements in the container ecosystem which we cover briefly. And highly relevant to our guest, Kevin Hoffman, .NET Core 1.0 was officially released, as open source. In the second half we talk about the recent history of .NET and how it’s being used to create microservices. We also talk about the three extra “factors” Kevin’s book adds to the 12 factor app and typical experiences when migrating to 12 factor apps.
Full show notes: pivotal.io/podcast
“In addition, the government plans to increase PaaS spending from $227.1 million in FY15 to $231.3 million [in FY16].”
We’re still in a phase where categorization causes weird slices of spend like this, but there you have it. More figures on “cloud” spending in the piece.
” Our announcements are always a minimum of six months ahead of the technology.”
Figuring out the market for PaaS has always been difficult. At the moment, I tend to estimate it at $20-25bn sometime in the future (5-10 years from now?) based on the model of converting the existing middleware and application development market. Sizing this market has been something of an annual bug-bear for me across my time at Dell doing cloud strategy, at 451 Research covering cloud, and now at Pivotal.
A bias against private PaaS
This number is contrast to numbers you usually see in the single digit billions from analysts. Most analysts think of PaaS only as public PaaS, tracking just Force.com, Heroku, and parts of AWS, Azure, and Google. This is mostly due, I think, to historical reasons: several years ago “private cloud” was seen as goofy and made-up, and I’ve found that many analysts still view it as such. Thus, their models started off being just public PaaS and have largely remained as so.
I was once a “public cloud bigot” myself, but having worked more closely with large organizations over the past five years, I now see that much of the spending on PaaS is on private PaaS. Indeed, if you look at the history of Pivotal Cloud Foundry, we didn’t start making major money until we gave customers what they wanted to buy: a private PaaS platform. The current product/market fit, then, PaaS for large organizations seems to be private PaaS
(Of course, I’d suggest a wording change: when you end-up running your own PaaS you actually end-up running your own cloud and, thus, end up with a cloud platform.)
How much do you have budgeted?
With this premise – that people want private PaaS – I then look at existing middleware and application development market-sizes. Recently, I’ve collected some figures for that:
- IDC’s Application Development forecast puts the application development market (which includes ALM tools and platforms) at $24bn in 2015, growing to $30bn in 2019. The commentary notes that the influence of PaaS will drive much growth here.
- Recently from Ovum: “Ovum forecasts the global spend on middleware software is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8 percent between 2014 and 2019, amounting to $US22.8 billion by end of 2019.”
- And there’s my old pull from a Goldman Sachs report that pulled from Gartner, where middleware is $24bn in 2015 (that’s from a Dec 2014 forecast).
When dealing with large numbers like this and so much speculation, I prefer ranges. Thus, the PaaS TAM I tent to use now-a-days is something like “it’s going after a $20-25bn market, you know, over the next 5 to 10 years.” That is, the pot of current money PaaS is looking to convert is somewhere in that range. That’s the amount of money organizations are currently willing to spend on this type of thing (middleware and application development) so it’s a good estimate of how much they’ll spend on a new type of this thing (PaaS) to help solve the same problems.
Things get slightly dicey depending on including databases, ALM tools, and the underlying virtualization and infrastructure software: some PaaSes include some, none, or all of these in their products. Databases are a huge market (~$40bn), as is virtualization (~$4.5bn). The other ancillary buckets are pretty small, relatively. I don’t think “PaaS” eats too much database, but probably some “virtualization.”
So, if you accept that PaaS is both public and private PaaS and that it’s going after the middleware and appdev market, it’s a lot more than a few billion dollars.
(Ironic-clipart from my favorite source, geralt.)
“Based on the articles I wrote and the people I spoke with in 2015, I’d say 2016 is going to be a good one for Cloud Foundry, as well as for PaaS in general. Compared to SaaS and IaaS, PaaS is still quite small, but it’s growing.”
There’s a new release of Pivotal Cloud Foundry out this week. We’ve been seeing great pick-up from customers, and the nature of conversations I’ve been seeing while visiting them has been changing from operations, IaaS-driven topics to discussions about improving application development and delivery. This release also reflects that shift “up the stack.” Here’s my brief take on how things are going for Pivotal Cloud Foundry.
The most typical path to using Pivotal Cloud Foundry
First, this is how I see most customers arriving at Pivotal Cloud Foundry:
Who does Pivotal see as their toughest competition? According to Watters, that distinction belongs to AWS. Cloud customers often believe that AWS itself is enough. [James] Watters says that there wouldn’t even be the concept of cloud-native apps without Amazon, but “people need more than just Amazon to be successful.” Watters believes that some of Pivotal’s best customers are those who first tried to creates platforms themselves, but then asked “what’s the right thing to do for my organization?”
The rest of the piece is a good, brief overview of the new feature in Pivotal Cloud Foundry 1.6.
What I see in this release is a movement “up the stack” to address application architecture and development concerns. You can see this in the incorporation of Spring Cloud (which supports, among many other things, a microservices approach), support for .Net (almost every large organization wants and needs this for the way they develop applications), and the numerous integrations with ALM tools (like Cloudbees, GitLabs, etc.).
For many years – and still! – the focus of “cloud” has been on the infrastructure layer: setting up the “operating system” for the cloud, your big datacenter, and everything that results in that magical blinking cursor:
I think of this as the “blinking cursor” problem. You know that softly pulsing cursor: it’s the result of millions —if not billions! — of dollars spent on cloud projects. These “private cloud” projects see companies redoing how their IT department provides infrastructure. They move from physical to virtual management; move from manual ticket processing to self-service, automated provisioning; and after efforts that must have seemed like building all of the furniture for a new IKEA store with just a pocket knife, they might end up with their own cloud. And then, after all of this, they’ve gotten the blinking cursor up! The servers are ready to use! Now the hard work of designing, developing, deploying, and managing the applications that run the business starts. There is little wonder that 95% of folks in [a poll asking “what went wrong with your private cloud project?”] were not completely satisfied with their private cloud projects.
I still see much of the conversation centering around getting the blinking curser up, and too little on how to create and manage good applications. So, obviously I like our new positioning “up the stack,” not only providing application-centric services, cloud-ified middleware, and the operations capabilities needed keep those application up and running.
In addition to the actual product, you can see this reflected on the team (the evangelist/advocate/community team) I’m on where we’ve added people who focus on explaining how to do better software development, in addition to the more operations-centric people we started with.
Momentum: customer and ecosystem growth and character
Momentum wise, I measure Pivotal Cloud Foundry based on customers and the overall Cloud Foundry ecosystem.
Customer wise, we’ve gone from about $40m in bookings in 2014 to a $100m annual bookings run-rate this year. Those are two, slightly different type numbers, but you can get a feel for the amount of business we’ve been doing, and more important, the high growth and fast traction we’re getting. What I like about out customer base is that they’re everyday, big brands and companies. This not only means I can better explain what I do to my non-tech friends and relatives, but also means we have a sustainable customer base: these Global 2,000 customers aren’t going away anytime soon, esp. if they keep up the strategy that brought them to Pivotal Cloud Foundry: transforming to a software defined business.
There’s a Cloud Foundry Summit this week in Berlin and it evidenced the ecosystem momentum around Cloud Foundry, the open source project that Pivotal Cloud Foundry is based on. There’s now just north of 50 members. When you look at those logos notice how many non-tech companies are on there: it’s still mostly tech companies who want to use or extend Cloud Foundry, but there’s a delightful number of non-tech companies who want to support the platform that’s supporting their business. And, of course, the work with Microsoft to support .Net brings that whole ecosystem very close as well. As I mentioned above, many of the every organization I talk with really wants .Net support. Another interesting thing to watch is growth in use of Azure; that’s an option that I hear companies exploring a lot now-a-days, and, indeed, as Microsoft said in the press around this release, “[t]he demand for Azure was so high that we already have Fortune 100 customers building their next-generation applications with Pivotal Cloud Foundry on Azure.”
Obviously, working at Pivotal I’m highly biased on all this. Still, I think there’s good evidence that things are panning out. My main hope, as always, is that we can help improve the state of software, globally, and, thus, improve how organizations are operating.
More on Pivotal Cloud Foundry 1.6:
- An overview of what’s in Pivotal Cloud Foundry 1.6
- Details on Spring Cloud – “SCS 1.0 operationalizes components from Spring Cloud, making them available as managed services within the Pivotal Cloud Foundry marketplace, including a configuration server, service registry, and circuit breaker dashboard service. SCS fully automates the installation, configuration, deployment, and management of these infrastructure components.”
- Press release covering 1.6
- There’s a 1.6 overview webinar on Nov 19th if you’d like to hear more.
I’ve been working on a series of blog posts on “the cloud native journey.” I put that in quotes because it’s admittedly a cheesy marketing phrase. The point of it is: if you’re looking to start using all these new cloud-based ideas for improving how your company does custom software development, what’s that look like. You know, what’s the “journey.”
All four parts are now up:
- The introduction to the series
- The Purity & Tyranny Of A Blank Screen: The Greenfield Journey – see also a recording of my webinar on this section, also the slides.
- Dealing With The Stuff That Makes All The Money: The Legacy Journey – check the recording of the webinar on this section, too. Also, the slides.
- The Cloud Native Journey: Enterprise Transformation – check out the recording of the webinar on this part. Also, the slides.
There’s also a PDF of the whole thing if you prefer that format.
Tell me what you think of it!