Reactions to Cloudera’s IPO, prospects – Notebook

There’s lots of opinions on Cloudera’s IPO today. Here’s some that I’ve collected in my notebook.

Not valued high enough?

Despite the share-price being up 20% at close, some negative commentary focuses on their valuation dropping from Intel’s funding round, e.g., from Brenon at 451:

The chipmaker paid up for the privilege, putting a ‘quadra unicorn’ valuation of $4.1bn on Cloudera. Altogether, Cloudera raised more than $1bn from private market investors, making the $225m raised from public market investors seem almost like lunch money.

And then there’s the small matter of valuation. In its debut, Cloudera is only worth about half of what Intel thought it was worth when it made its bet.

The counter-point goes a little something like this (as pointed out by Derrick Harris):

“Much has been made of the huge valuation of that Intel-led round, but that’s all misguided noise,” according to IPO Candy, a website founded by Kris Tuttle, the director of research at Soundview Technology Group. “Intel didn’t make the investment for a financial return so the valuation isn’t relevant.”

Back in 2014, Intel was still smarting from missing the shift to mobile computing and Big Data was a favorite as the next big thing. The Santa Clara chip giant’s bet was placed chasing a strategic return, not so much banking a direct return on investment.

You know, all of this is a little bit of ¯_(ツ)_/¯. As I recall, Facebook’s IPO was all wiggly-woggly. If Cloudera makes a lot of money, gets bought for a lot of money, etc., no one will care to remember, just like with Facebook. Success is the best deodorant.

Their business, finances

Also from 451, earlier this month, a profile of their business:

Cloudera is nearly one-third bigger than Hortonworks, recording $261m in sales in its most recent fiscal year compared with $184m for Hortonworks. Both are growing at roughly 50%.

Since 2008, the company has grown steadily. As of January 31, it reports more than 1,000 customers. However, Cloudera is currently emphasizing and banking its success on what it calls the Global 8,000, which are the largest enterprises worldwide. The company notes that its number of Global 8,000 customers increased from 255 as of January 31, 2015, to 381 as of January 31, 2016, and 495 as of January 31. For the year ended January 31, the Global 8,000 represented 73% of Cloudera’s total revenue, while a further 10% of total sales came from the public sector. The company reports 1,470 fulltime employees as of January 31, a slight increase from its headcount of 1,140 the prior year.

More from Katie Roof at TechCrunch:

Cloudera’s market cap is now about $2.3 billion, significantly less than the $4.1 billion valuation Intel gave in 2014. This increasingly common phenomenon is now nicknamed a “down round IPO.”

In an interview with TechCrunch, CEO Tom Riley insisted that this was not a problem for the company because of the “growth prospects ahead of us.” If it performs well in the stock market, it could ultimately achieve the $4 billion-plus value. Square, which went public in 2015 at half its private market valuation, has since seen its share prices more than double.

(Side-note: comparisons of companies, Square and Cloudera, that have nothing to do with each other except being “tech” – and Square is payment processing, not “pure tech,” at that! – drive me a bit crazy, as listeners know.)

And a quick revenue/spend write-up from her:

Cloudera’s revenue is growing, totaling $261 million for the fiscal year that ended in January. The company brought in $166 million at the same time last year.

Losses were $186.32 million, down from $203 million in the same period the year before.

And, according to Jonathan Vanian: “Cloudera spent $203 million on sales and marketing in its latest fiscal year, up 26% from the previous year.”

TAM

I don’t really follow this space well enough anymore to quickly figure out the TAM: I suspect Cloudera operates in several data and BI related ones.

Cloudera isn’t only Hadoop, but 451 put the Hadoop market at $1.3b in 2016, growing to $4.4b in 2020, with a CAGR of 38.3% between 2015 & 2020.

If you throw data warehousing, BI, analytics, and an injection of the mega-databases TAM together, you get a really big TAM, anyhow. Keep in mind though that one of the traps of (definitionally orthodox) disruptors in this space is lowering the TAM of their respective markets, a la Red Hat in operating systems. I don’t get the sense that Cloudera is on that game plan, but others in the market might be.

Buyers’ plans & needs

With respect to what people would do with Cloudera and others in this space (including Pivotal), here’s a good ranking of the information infrastructure priorities Gartner recently found in enterprises:

info plans survey

Also of public/private cloud interest from the summary of that survey: “Based on survey responses, plans for on-premises deployments for production uses of data will drop from today’s 45% to 14% in 2018.”

Looking forward

People in the tech industry care a great deal about IPO’s like this. We’re all curious what The Market’s read on valuation of enterprise IT business models is for our own benefit, and just a general sense of the health of the sector. There’s also usually people you know at the company, so “yay” for people you know.

One day isn’t long enough to tell anything, though, cf., in a completely different space, that Facebook debut weirdness. People got all excited about Cisco buying AppDynamics because that seemed to show some “healthy” signs that money valued this kind of software/SaaS.

At any rate, people still seem to love the Big Data and such. From Cloudera’s CEO, Tom Reilly: “We’re competing with IBM and Watson, so our customers seeing the strength of our finances allows us to do more.” Think of all the free marketing!

And, Mike Olson (original CEO) adds:

The ensuing years have been remarkable. Our company has grown with the market. The original technology has morphed almost beyond recognition, adding real-time, SQL, streaming, machine learning capabilities and more. That’s driven adoption among some of the very biggest enterprises on the planet. They’re running a huge variety of applications, solving a wide variety of critical business problems.

Our early bet has proven correct: Data is changing the world. In applications like fraud detection and prevention, securing networks against cyberattacks and optimizing fleet performance in logistics and trucking, we’re delivering value. We’re helping to address big social challenges, improving patient outcomes in healthcare and helping law enforcement find and shut down human trafficking networks.

Against that background, an IPO takes on a more appropriate scale. We started Cloudera because we believe that data makes things that are impossible today, possible tomorrow. There’s more data coming, and there are plenty of impossible things to work on. Our journey is only well begun.

I admittedly don’t know Cloudera’s business model too well, but my sense is that they align well with the “have something to sell” model that many open source companies in the enterprise space forget to put in place.

Picking off the slow-movers: $15bn for tech PE now sloshing around at Silverlake, more to come

Silver Lake plans to announce on Tuesday that it has closed its fifth buyout fund at $15 billion, one of the biggest ever dedicated to technology deals. That exceeds the $12.5 billion fund-raising target that the firm had previously aimed for and brings the firm’s total assets and committed capital to about $39 billion.

They seem to get good returns:

Silver Lake’s fourth fund, with $10.5 billion under management, currently boasts returns of nearly 31 percent, according to the data provider PitchBook.

Meanwhile, as Dan Primack mentioned, you can expect $100bn from SoftBank.

What this means is that more older, lower growth software companies will be taken private. More than likely, their day-to-day operations will be optimized to get their cash-flow fixed up and increase profits. These companies can then act as cash machines and find some exit after the PE owners “fix” management and operations problems at the company.

That usually means consolidation, which results in firing people, but also fixing stubborn “frozen middle” problems that have preventing each product line from evolving and getting a better ongoing product/market for, meaning: being something that customers want to use and keep buying. There can also just be a lot of “bloat” in older product lines, esp. when it comes to effective product management, marketing, and developers following old, slow, but comfortable processes.

And, sometimes, as you see at IBM, you just have to shut down old business in favor of building new ones. This means a top-line revenue hit, which means slowing or killing quarterly growth. As IBM has been demonstrating for 20 quarters, when you’re public, ain’t nobody got time for that. In theory, when private, you can choose that option.

As Brenon at 451 has noted, going private deals like these are growing much more than “corporate” acquisitions (like when Microsoft, Cisco, IBM, etc. buy a company to integrate into their product portfolio rather than optimize the company as discussed here). It doesn’t always work, but that “nearly 30%” return indicates that it works more than enough.

Link

The coming billions in updating bank’s COBOL stacks

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, for instance, replaced its core banking platform in 2012 with the help of Accenture and software company SAP SE. The job ultimately took five years and cost more than 1 billion Australian dollars ($749.9 million).

Being conservative, multiply $500m across the top 20 banks, and you’ve got $10bn, using $749.8m directly, you get much closer to $15bn.

Better start planning.

Source: Banks scramble to fix old systems as IT ‘cowboys’ ride into sunset

Rackspace positioning around cloud and OpenStack, from the CEO

Now that they don’t have to compete with AWS, they have an extra $300m floating around in the spreadsheets:

“Ultimately now it’s about how are we going to build a stronger company. If we don’t have to go spend $300 million a year in capital competing against Amazon, building computing storage and networking, where should we go put that? In things like managed cybersecurity and professional services,” said Rhodes.

On OpenStack, finding the product/market for for private cloud:

And what about OpenStack, the open-source cloud computing platform that Rackspace created with NASA?

“We thought the world wanted another alternative to public cloud,” said Rhodes. “What we are learning is the world doesn’t need another public cloud, so OpenStack is shifting form and going private cloud.”

Also, cameo from my former 451 colleague Carl Brooks.

Link

Omni-channel at Target: 14% of 2016 sales were “digital,” with 68% fulfilled in-store

In 2014, more than 93% of our transactions took place in stores, less than 7% digital. That season we had just started shipping from a small number of stores. In 2015, that same timeframe, digital sales reached almost 10% of our total sales. We more than doubled our ship-from store-capability to nearly 500 stores. We fulfilled 41% of all our digital orders inside of a store.

For 2016, just a few months ago, just last year, digital sales climbed to 14%, more than twice what we did two years earlier. We double ship-from-stores again, more than 1,000 stores. Our stores were fulfilling 68% of our digital orders. We finished December with record digital growth, including record-breaking days on both Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.

Always nice to see multi-year numbers.

Link

Spending from outside of the IT department

Corporate departments outside of the IT department, globally, are forecast to spend $609bn in 2017:

A new update to the Worldwide Semiannual IT Spending Guide: Line of Business from the International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts worldwide corporate IT spending funded by non-IT business units will reach $609 billion in 2017, an increase of 5.9% over 2016. The Spending Guide, which quantifies the purchasing power of line of business (LoB) technology buyers by providing a detailed examination of where the funding for a variety of IT purchases originates, also forecasts LoB spending to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% over the 2015-2020 forecast period. In comparison, technology spending by IT buyers is forecast to have a five-year CAGR of 2.3%. By 2020, IDC expects LoB technology spending to be nearly equal to that of the IT organization.

Meanwhile, all in, global IT spend was estimated at $2.4tn in 2016, but that includes telco and consumer tech. And, this demographic breakdown for enterprise IT spend:

In terms of company size, more than 45% of all IT spending worldwide will come from very large businesses (more than 1,000 employees) while the small office category (the 70-plus million small businesses with 1-9 employees) will provide roughly one quarter of all IT spending throughout the forecast period. Medium (100-499 employees) and large (500-999 employees) business will see the fastest growth in IT spending, each with a CAGR of 4.4%.

Sources: Technology Purchases from Line of Business Budgets Forecast to Grow Faster Than Purchases Funded by the IT Organization, According to IDC, March 2017 and Worldwide IT Spending Forecast to Reach $2.7 Trillion in 2020 Led by Financial Services, Manufacturing, and Healthcare, According to IDC, Aug 2016.

The Economist on Amazon – Highlights

  • Video: “In 2017 Amazon is expected to spend $4.5bn on television and film content, roughly twice what HBO will spend. But it has a big payoff.”
  • Prime momentum: “Mr Nowak reckons the company had 72m Prime members last year, up by 32% from 2015.”
  • Cloud: “Last year AWS’s revenue reached $12bn, up by more than 150% since 2014.”
  • Anti-trust, in the US: “If competitors fail to halt Amazon’s whirl of activities, antitrust enforcers might yet do so instead. This does not seem an imminent threat. American antitrust authorities mainly consider a company’s effect on consumers and pricing, not broader market power. By that standard, Amazon has brought big benefits.”

Are investors too optimistic about Amazon?

Australian government’s Cloud Foundry apps in production

Delivery teams are now able to build services faster and easier. In July 2016, DTA had 14 apps in production and 50 apps in development. In October 2016, the numbers increased to 47 apps in production and 225 apps in development.

Australian Government Cuts Release Time with Cloud Foundry, Iterates Faster – Cloud Foundry Live

Automation at Goldman, The Computer takes out four people

Today, nearly 45 percent of trading is done electronically, according to Coalition, a U.K. firm that tracks the industry.

Pay:

Average compensation for staff in sales, trading, and research at the 12 largest global investment banks, of which Goldman is one, is $500,000 in salary and bonus, according to Coalition. Seventy-five percent of Wall Street compensation goes to these highly paid “front end” employees, says Amrit Shahani, head of research at Coalition… Investment bankers working on corporate mergers and acquisitions at large banks like Goldman make on average $700,000 a year, according to Coalition, and in a good year they can earn far more.

Automating those $700,000+ meat-sacks:

Goldman Sachs has already begun to automate currency trading, and has found consistently that four traders can be replaced by one computer engineer, Chavez said at the Harvard conference. Some 9,000 people, about one-third of Goldman’s staff, are computer engineers.

Finding the things to automate:

Though those “rainmakers” won’t be replaced entirely, Goldman has already mapped 146 distinct steps taken in any initial public offering of stock, and many are “begging to be automated,” he said.

To be all double-turns-out about the grim automation stuff, in theory, this could mean hiring more programmers and people who support those robots, bringing down those big chunks of cash from “rainmakers” and spreading it down to “lower” grade staff. Of, you know, the bank can just keep that money and trickle it up to execs and share-holders.

Source: As Goldman Embraces Automation, Even the Masters of the Universe Are Threatened