The Problem with PaaS Market-sizing

Figuring out the market for PaaS has always been difficult. At the moment, I tend to estimate it at $20-25bn sometime in the future (5-10 years from now?) based on the model of converting the existing middleware and application development market. Sizing this market has been something of an annual bug-bear for me across my time at Dell doing cloud strategy, at 451 Research covering cloud, and now at Pivotal.

A bias against private PaaS

This number is contrast to numbers you usually see in the single digit billions from analysts. Most analysts think of PaaS only as public PaaS, tracking just Force.com, Heroku, and parts of AWS, Azure, and Google. This is mostly due, I think, to historical reasons: several years ago “private cloud” was seen as goofy and made-up, and I’ve found that many analysts still view it as such. Thus, their models started off being just public PaaS and have largely remained as so.

I was once a “public cloud bigot” myself, but having worked more closely with large organizations over the past five years, I now see that much of the spending on PaaS is on private PaaS. Indeed, if you look at the history of Pivotal Cloud Foundry, we didn’t start making major money until we gave customers what they wanted to buy: a private PaaS platform. The current product/market fit, then, PaaS for large organizations seems to be private PaaS

(Of course, I’d suggest a wording change: when you end-up running your own PaaS you actually end-up running your own cloud and, thus, end up with a cloud platform.)

How much do you have budgeted?

With this premise – that people want private PaaS – I then look at existing middleware and application development market-sizes. Recently, I’ve collected some figures for that:

  • IDC’s Application Development forecast puts the application development market (which includes ALM tools and platforms) at $24bn in 2015, growing to $30bn in 2019. The commentary notes that the influence of PaaS will drive much growth here.
  • Recently from Ovum: “Ovum forecasts the global spend on middleware software is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8 percent between 2014 and 2019, amounting to $US22.8 billion by end of 2019.”
  • And there’s my old pull from a Goldman Sachs report that pulled from Gartner, where middleware is $24bn in 2015 (that’s from a Dec 2014 forecast).

When dealing with large numbers like this and so much speculation, I prefer ranges. Thus, the PaaS TAM I tent to use now-a-days is something like “it’s going after a $20-25bn market, you know, over the next 5 to 10 years.” That is, the pot of current money PaaS is looking to convert is somewhere in that range. That’s the amount of money organizations are currently willing to spend on this type of thing (middleware and application development) so it’s a good estimate of how much they’ll spend on a new type of this thing (PaaS) to help solve the same problems.

Things get slightly dicey depending on including databases, ALM tools, and the underlying virtualization and infrastructure software: some PaaSes include some, none, or all of these in their products. Databases are a huge market (~$40bn), as is virtualization (~$4.5bn). The other ancillary buckets are pretty small, relatively. I don’t think “PaaS” eats too much database, but probably some “virtualization.”

So, if you accept that PaaS is both public and private PaaS and that it’s going after the middleware and appdev market, it’s a lot more than a few billion dollars.

(Ironic-clipart from my favorite source, geralt.)

Link: Is the future of wealth management going to be robo-advisers?

Estimate of the market-size for companies like Wealthfront: “whilst in the UK robo-advisers currently only cover less than £1 billion assets under management, the US robo-advisory market handled $19 billion AUM in 2014 (a growth of 65% from the previous eight months).”

Source: Is the future of wealth management going to be robo-advisers?

Link: ​Middleware-as-a-service turns enterprise integration on its head – Reseller News

“Global analyst firm Ovum forecasts the global spend on middleware software is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8 percent between 2014 and 2019, amounting to $US22.8 billion by end of 2019.”

Source: ​Middleware-as-a-service turns enterprise integration on its head – Reseller News

Link: Internet of Things Spending Forecast to Reach Nearly $1.3 Trillion in 2019 Led by Widespread Initiatives

“According to a new IDC Spending Guide, worldwide spending on the Internet of Things (IoT) will grow at a 17.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from $698.6 billion in 2015 to nearly $1.3 trillion in 2019.”

I think IoT is becoming mor like IoEverything.

Source: Internet of Things Spending Forecast to Reach Nearly $1.3 Trillion in 2019 Led by Widespread Initiatives

The Need for U.S. Digital Engagement

“Twenty years ago, 61 percent of the Internet’s 35 million users were based in the U.S. Today, the U.S. accounts for less than 10 percent of the 3 billion connected people worldwide. There are now 650 million Internet users in China (compared with 280 million in the U.S.) There will be as many as 550 million connected consumers in India by 2018 (more than double the current number).”

The Need for U.S. Digital Engagement

Public IaaS sort of a big deal – $16.5bn in 2015

Some new market sizing for public IaaS is out from Gartner. $16.5bn in 2015, out of a $3.5t pie of global IT spend.

Also:

For the first time this year growth of public cloud IaaS workloads outpaced that of on-premises workloads. One in 10 CIOs surveyed by Gartner say they have adopted a cloud-first strategy, while 83% consider IaaS a viable option to use

Sizing the PaaS Market

Fun with market sizing

I’ve spent a lot of time over the years working with cloud market-sizings, and occasioanlly on them. They’re always a bit whackadoodle and can be difficult to pull apart. But, so long as they’re consistent year of year, they do give a good intedication of momentum and a comparision to other markets. This is what you should be using emerging technology marketsizing for: just indications of which way the wind is blowing and how strong that wind is relative to other breezes.

All too often, strategy and M&A people (and other “MBA” types who’re doing valuations and finances, plus all the hangers on in the chattering classes) get obsssed with market-sizing as if they’re “real” and start to do things like include them as fundamental parts of their business plan, e.g., “we’re going to capture 1% of the cloud market this year!” The implication there is that if they don’t, they’ve failed…but when you realize how corny the market-sizing are, you realize that basing your yearly plan on an Excel macro is a poor use of time.

With that disclaiming context established, I love finding market sizing numbers. They’re fun once you get enough of them and can start figuring out the relative size of markets. Which is to say: how much money is being spent each year across the world on various types of technology.

PaaS

Platform-as-a-Service is one of the more tricky markets to size and has spun all sorts of directions over the years. It’s always the smallest of the three aaS’s, but the highest growth. Even worse, most PaaS market-sizing you see is for only public PaaS. I’ve heard that Gartner has consternated much about this over the years: if you insert a simple “r” into it, they have an on-premises category called CrEAP that sizes what, I think, is “private PaaS,” and I believe they’re fixing it up further.

However, the problem with sizing the PaaS market is asking what you’re sizing. There’s “PaaS from SaaS” offerings like Force.com and then so called “first generation” PaaSes like Heroku (also at Salesforce) and EngineYeard. Then there’s hosted development tools (all the CI services otu there) that, for some reason, show up in PaaS market-sizing. But now there’s all the private PaaS offerings that happen to also run as public PaaS (it turns out the enterprise market really likes private cloud as well as public). And then there’s trouble-makers like us at Pivotal who bristle at the notion of being called (just) a PaaS. Layer Docker, Mesos, kubernetes and all those folks in there…and you’re head should be spinning.

The composition of this market has changed dramatically over the years. My theory is that it’s not well “shaken out” (defined) yet and it’ll change more. So, when I get asked for PaaS market-sizing, I sigh a bit inside.

Getting to a helpful PaaS market-sizing

I think the best process is to thinking through a what PaaS is used for and then try to figure out how much money is spent on solving that problem, not the exact technologies used to solve it. To me, that gets to some indication (whether it’s a ceiling, floor, or mid-point, I don’t know) of how much money there is up to grabs if you’re selling PaaS.

To that end, I always like this chart from a recent Goldman PDF:

As you can infer from my over contextualizing above, I think most PaaS market-sizing is bunk, but this chart a good way of thinking through getting to answer. It compares traditional packaged software and on-premises hardware spend to IaaS and PaaS to show how it starts to erode into “non-cloud” IT. I’m not sure if IaaS and PaaS and public cloud only (it probaly is, which is problematic).

When using this chart, the voice over is something like “tracking this market is difficult at this moment, as any analyst will tell you. I like to use something like this chart as a guide for thinking about it. With PaaS, what you’re interested in is how much traditional IT teams writing cloud-native applications are taking over, and this is one swag at it. Notice that the growth rates are drastically different too: there’s little to no growth in traditional.

The other thing (since most analysts don’t track private PaaS) this suggests is that all the traditional middleware money switches over to all PaaS (public and private) at some point…at least all the “new” money, the growth. Or, at least, that it’s a rough heuristic. It could be less (prices go down with cloud, right? ;>) or it could be more (software eating the world X IT – SaaS = what? == more customer software development at companies leading to more spend on the application development category).

So, if you add up the traditional markets of Appdev and middleare, you get something like a $35-40bn market in 2018 or so, depending how exuberant or dower you want to be, for pubic and private PaaS. Again, that wet-finger-in-the-winding is “bunk,” but it tells you type of money you should think about. Assume that over the next 10 years most “appdev and middleware” spend converts to “PaaS” and then you’ve got something that looks less shitty than the PaaS market-sizing analysts do now-a-days…and more real, I think.

If you’re really interested in PaaS, come to the Cloud Foundry Summit next month, May 11th and 12th, and see how this market is evolving. You’ll hear how companies are using Cloud Foundry to create software defined businesses and get the latest technical details on Cloud Foundry. Register with the code COTE to get 25% off!