🗂 Link: DevOps-Led Business Transformation

The reality, though, is that many European organizations are only at the beginning of the journey to achieve elite delivery performance. From IDCs point of view, the ability to transform application estates and accelerate application delivery is one of the most critical business objectives for organizations in the next five years, with European organizations forecast to spend $80 billion on accelerated application delivery by 2022. 

Source: DevOps-Led Business Transformation

🗂 Link: IDC Survey Finds Artificial Intelligence to be a Priority for Organizations But Few Have Implemented an Enterprise-Wide Strategy

An IDC “survey of global organizations that are already using artificial intelligence (AI) solutions found only 25% have developed an enterprise-wide AI strategy.”

But:

“More than 60% of organizations reported changes in their business model in association with their AI adoption.”

Source: IDC Survey Finds Artificial Intelligence to be a Priority for Organizations But Few Have Implemented an Enterprise-Wide Strategy

🗂 Link: Spending on Customer Experience Technologies Will Reach $641 Billion in 2022, According to New IDC Spending Guide

Worldwide spending on customer experience (CX) technologies will total $508 billion in 2019, an increase of 7.9% over 2018, according to the inaugural Worldwide Semiannual Customer Experience Spending Guide from International Data Corporation (IDC). As companies focus on meeting the expectations of customers and providing a differentiated customer experience, IDC expects CX spending to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over the 2018-2022 forecast period, reaching $641 billion in 2022.

Source: Spending on Customer Experience Technologies Will Reach $641 Billion in 2022, According to New IDC Spending Guide

🗂 Link: The Cost of Banking Is About to Go Up: What the Capital One Breach at Amazon Could Mean for the Industry

“The adoption of cloud platforms is a movement that will not be stopped,” says Jerry Silva, research director, IDC’s Financial Insights Group. “But there will be a slowdown as regulators step in to ensure that the security and resiliency structures that have always applied to banks directly are applied to the cloud providers with which they do business.”

Source: The Cost of Banking Is About to Go Up: What the Capital One Breach at Amazon Could Mean for the Industry

Link: Enterprises to spend almost $2 trillion on digital transformation by 2022

“Industry spending on DX technologies is being driven by core innovation accelerator technologies with IoT and cognitive computing leading the race in terms of overall spend,” said Eileen Smith, program director with IDC’s Customer Insights and Analysis Group. “The introduction of IoT sensors and communications capabilities is rapidly transforming manufacturing processes as well as asset and inventory management across a wide range of industries. Similarly, artificial intelligence and machine learning are dramatically changing the way businesses interact with data and enabling fundamental changes in business processes.”

Some 75 percent of the total digital transformation spend will go to hardware and services. Chinese and U.S. companies together will account for more than half the overall spend.

What? No blockchain?
Original source: Enterprises to spend almost $2 trillion on digital transformation by 2022

Link: Modeling the future enterprise: people, purpose, and profit

“One answer is in a straightforward metric—how new technologies like cloud, cognitive, mobile, IoT, mobile, etc., impact industries via the gross domestic product (GDP) by industry by region. Looking at the improvement opportunities in healthcare, energy, government, and the supply chain, among other domains, IDC has identified $18.5 trillion in annual economic value add by 2020. That’s a 25% increase in global GDP.”
Original source: Modeling the future enterprise: people, purpose, and profit

Link: Worldwide Spending on Security Solutions Forecast to Reach $91 Billion in 2018, According to a New IDC Spending Guide

“Worldwide spending on security-related hardware, software, and services is forecast to reach $91.4 billion in 2018, an increase of 10.2% over the amount spent in 2017.” Also, a breakdown of spending per industry and type of security product.
Original source: Worldwide Spending on Security Solutions Forecast to Reach $91 Billion in 2018, According to a New IDC Spending Guide

Link: Worldwide SMB IT Spending to Pass $600 Billion in 2018, Driven by Mid-Market Demand for Software and Services, According to IDC

For companies under 1,000 people, IDC “forecasts total IT spending by small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) to be nearly $602 billion in 2018, an increase of 4.9% over 2017. With a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% for the 2016-2021 forecast period, spending by businesses with fewer than 1,000 employees on IT hardware, software, and services, including business services, is expected to reach $684 billion on in 2021.”
Original source: Worldwide SMB IT Spending to Pass $600 Billion in 2018, Driven by Mid-Market Demand for Software and Services, According to IDC

Link: The Server Market Booms, And It Could Last For A While

“Datacenters certainly came to the fourth quarter of last year hungry, and according to the latest statistics from IDC, they consumed 2.84 million units of iron, a 10.8 percent increase over the prior year’s final quarter. Thanks to IBM’s big bump up with System z14 mainframe sales and to a general trend of buying beefier boxes for hefty machine learning, analytics, and HPC workloads (admittedly but a slice of the server shipment pie), revenues for those servers shipped rose by 26.4 percent to $20.65 billion. This is the first time ever that server sales broke through the $20 billion barrier, and after IDC finishes restating its ODM server revenues for the first quarter of 2017, it is likely that it will report revised sales for all of 2017 to kiss $67 billion. Over that same period, Intel’s Data Center Group will account for $19.1 billion in sales and $8.4 billion in operating profit, just to give you a sense of the chip giant’s slice of the pie. If you are generous and assume that there is a 10 percent operating margin on servers – and that is because big iron NUMA machines and mainframes bring up the class average bigtime even as the ODMs do maybe 5 points of profit at best – that is a potential operating profit for the server industry of around $7 billion. If that is close to reality, then Intel will have around 27 percent of server revenues passed back to it by its OEM and ODM partners as a cost for compoents. If you add Intel’s profit to the server industry’s aggregate profit, and then add in the profit for memory and flash makers, Intel could account for 40 percent of the profit and as much as 50 percent back when memory and flash cost half as much as it did a year ago.”
Original source: The Server Market Booms, And It Could Last For A While

Spending from outside of the IT department

Corporate departments outside of the IT department, globally, are forecast to spend $609bn in 2017:

A new update to the Worldwide Semiannual IT Spending Guide: Line of Business from the International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts worldwide corporate IT spending funded by non-IT business units will reach $609 billion in 2017, an increase of 5.9% over 2016. The Spending Guide, which quantifies the purchasing power of line of business (LoB) technology buyers by providing a detailed examination of where the funding for a variety of IT purchases originates, also forecasts LoB spending to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% over the 2015-2020 forecast period. In comparison, technology spending by IT buyers is forecast to have a five-year CAGR of 2.3%. By 2020, IDC expects LoB technology spending to be nearly equal to that of the IT organization.

Meanwhile, all in, global IT spend was estimated at $2.4tn in 2016, but that includes telco and consumer tech. And, this demographic breakdown for enterprise IT spend:

In terms of company size, more than 45% of all IT spending worldwide will come from very large businesses (more than 1,000 employees) while the small office category (the 70-plus million small businesses with 1-9 employees) will provide roughly one quarter of all IT spending throughout the forecast period. Medium (100-499 employees) and large (500-999 employees) business will see the fastest growth in IT spending, each with a CAGR of 4.4%.

Sources: Technology Purchases from Line of Business Budgets Forecast to Grow Faster Than Purchases Funded by the IT Organization, According to IDC, March 2017 and Worldwide IT Spending Forecast to Reach $2.7 Trillion in 2020 Led by Financial Services, Manufacturing, and Healthcare, According to IDC, Aug 2016.

Global IT spend at $2.4 trillion in 2017, 3.5% growth, IDC

Worldwide revenues for information technology (IT) products and services are forecast to reach nearly $2.4 trillion in 2017, an increase of 3.5% over 2016. In a newly published update to the Worldwide Semiannual IT Spending Guide: Industry and Company Size , International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that global IT spending will grow to nearly $2.65 trillion in 2020. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% for the 2015-2020 forecast period.

Link

Five years of declining PC sales

For the year, Gartner estimated shipments at 269.717 million, down 6.2 per cent year-on-year, with each of the major manufacturers except Dell reporting falling sales.

Gartner says high-end PCs are doing well, but of course, are a smaller market:

There have been innovative form factors, like 2-in-1s and thin and light notebooks, as well as technology improvements, such as longer battery life. This high end of the market has grown fast, led by engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market driven by PC enthusiasts is not big enough to drive overall market growth.

There may less volume, but it’d be nice to know how that effects profits in the notoriously slim margin PC business.

Meanwhile, on overall, global IT spend:

Companies are due to splash $3.5tr (£2.87tr) on IT this year, globally, although that is down from its previous projection of three per cent.

See some more commentary of that forecast.

Link

AI market sizing: $39bn in growth in less than 3 years?!

The market — defined as A.I.-related hardware, software and services — will surge from $8 billion this year to $47 billion by 2020, predicts IDC, a research firm.

Uh…

Also, some coverage of Watson business models, including customized cocktail drugs, which I hear is a scary big business in the horizon.

And, there’s some IBM AI spreadsheeting you can fiddle around with:

Market-share:

IBM may have a chance to join that group. By 2020, IDC predicts, 60 percent of the A.I. applications will run on the platform of four companies: Amazon, Google, Microsoft and IBM.

Revenue:

UBS estimates that Watson may generate $500 million in revenue this year and could grow rapidly in the years ahead, possibly hitting nearly $6 billion by 2020 and almost $17 billion by 2022.

Having lived through The Great Cloud Forecasting era around the turn of the decade, my advice is: take all this with care, but enjoy the razzle-dazzle!

Source: IBM Is Counting on Its Bet on Watson, and Paying Big Money for It

The APM market is lively, growing 12% last year

“In 2015, the worldwide application performance management software market grew an estimated 12.1% over that in 2014, in large part because of increased demand for a new generation of solutions designed to support DevOps and multicloud infrastructure initiatives,” explains Mary Johnston Turner, research vice president, Enterprise System Management Software. “This new generation of APM solutions is easier to implement, supports more sophisticated analytics, and is less expensive than earlier offerings. As a result, APM is providing value to a much wider range of developers and IT operations teams that need constant, current visibility into end-to-end application performance and end-user experience.”

The previous y/y was 12.7%, so things are going well in that market I’d say. As I recall, this includes mainframe and other “not normal” revenue. If you look at just the subset market of x86 and web apps, it’s even higher around 17%. That “distributed” APM TAM was estimated at $2.2bn in 2014.

I don’t have access to the full APM report, but the size is around several billion. One Gartner estimate put it around $2.6bn in 2014.

See also this vendor share commentary based on Gartner’s analysis of the APM market.

Source: Worldwide Application Performance Management Software Forecast, 2016–2020

Bimodal IT leads to technical debt that must be paid, with interest

Instead, it has created a great divide, said Pucciarelli. “This siloed, divided approach brings frustration, disappointment and failure in multiple ways.” For one thing, it doesn’t support healthy team spirit, he said, and the innovation side tends to operate fast to deliver business solutions without the accountability around reliability, quality and security that is expected from the traditional IT side. “It leads to redundancy and inefficiency.”

Source: Bimodal IT leads to technical debt that must be paid, with interest

60% of enterprises using or planning to use public IaaS by the end of 2016, IDC

IDC’s IaaS forecast is out, tragically, I don’t have access to it. However, here’s some highlights from the press release:

  • Public IaaS is in wide use “A recent survey of over 6,000 IT organizations found that nearly two thirds of the respondents are either already using or planning to use public cloud IaaS by the end of 2016.”
  • Public IaaS is a large, fast growing market – the overall IaaS market is forecast to grow from $12.6bn in 2015 to $43.6bn in 2020, a CAGR of 28.2%.
  • Yup, fast growing – growth from 2014 to 2015 was 51%
  • People use more than one IaaS, and probably “cloud” – “[H]ybrid cloud infrastructure is already a common pattern at several large enterprises and IDC predicts that 80% of IT organizations will be committed to hybrid architectures by 2018″ – notice they say “large enterprises,” which suggests a cut of the data by company size: last I recall, IDC defined “large enterprise” as 2,500+ people, which may or may not be the case here.
  • A few cloud providers dominate – Amazon is still king, and there’s an fat-head of marketshare: “In 2015, 56% of the revenue and 59% of the absolute growth went to the top 10 IaaS vendors.”

Contrast that 60% IaaS usage with the 45% use in a recent Morgan Stanley CIO survey. I don’t think that’s a huge difference, but it does show the fiddliness of these kinds of surveys. To be fair, the Morgan Stanley survey has public IaaS usage at ~90% by 2019. I’d trust IDC a lot more, esp. with 6,000 surveyed vs. 100.

Also, while I can’t verify this: I’d assume this public IaaS is not to the exclusion of private cloud/on-premises. To be sure, some, or even much, of it must be public cloud gobbling up on-premises usage and revenue. However, I wouldn’t take it as a zero-sum game between the two.

Source: Enterprise Adoption Driving Strong Growth of Public Cloud Infrastructure as a Service, According to IDC – prUS41599716

Link: Internet of Things Spending Forecast to Reach Nearly $1.3 Trillion in 2019 Led by Widespread Initiatives

“According to a new IDC Spending Guide, worldwide spending on the Internet of Things (IoT) will grow at a 17.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from $698.6 billion in 2015 to nearly $1.3 trillion in 2019.”

I think IoT is becoming mor like IoEverything.

Source: Internet of Things Spending Forecast to Reach Nearly $1.3 Trillion in 2019 Led by Widespread Initiatives

IDC: Industry-specific solutions to drive public cloud computing

“IDC predicts the cloud computing market to reach about $70 billion this year and the number of new cloud-based solutions to triple within the next four to five years….the biggest cloud computing verticals worldwide will be discrete manufacturing, banking, professional services, process manufacturing, and retail. IDC expects the five verticals to represent 45 percent of the market’s total spend.”

IDC: Industry-specific solutions to drive public cloud computing

Get your third platform on

For people like me who want to see more software defined businesses, some fun declarations from the third platform folks, IDC:

  • By 2016, 65% of global competitive strategies will require real-time 3rd Platform IT as a service.
  • By 2016, 80% of CIOs will deliver a new architectural framework that enables innovation and improved business decision making.
  • By 2016, 80% of CIOs will accelerate 3rd Platform migration to counter premature obsolescence of current IT assets

So, you know, around now-ish.

Get your third platform on

US SMB Spending

“Spending on information technology by the almost 6.5 million small and medium-sized businesses [1-999 employees] in the United States will approach $161.1 billion in 2015, accounting for over one-quarter of overall global SMB IT spending”

Details on spending totals are provided for key hardware, software, and services technology areas: PCs and peripherals, systems and storage, telecommunications equipment, packaged software, and IT services.

From IDC