Corporate departments outside of the IT department, globally, are forecast to spend $609bn in 2017:
A new update to the Worldwide Semiannual IT Spending Guide: Line of Business from the International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts worldwide corporate IT spending funded by non-IT business units will reach $609 billion in 2017, an increase of 5.9% over 2016. The Spending Guide, which quantifies the purchasing power of line of business (LoB) technology buyers by providing a detailed examination of where the funding for a variety of IT purchases originates, also forecasts LoB spending to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% over the 2015-2020 forecast period. In comparison, technology spending by IT buyers is forecast to have a five-year CAGR of 2.3%. By 2020, IDC expects LoB technology spending to be nearly equal to that of the IT organization.
Meanwhile, all in, global IT spend was estimated at $2.4tn in 2016, but that includes telco and consumer tech. And, this demographic breakdown for enterprise IT spend:
In terms of company size, more than 45% of all IT spending worldwide will come from very large businesses (more than 1,000 employees) while the small office category (the 70-plus million small businesses with 1-9 employees) will provide roughly one quarter of all IT spending throughout the forecast period. Medium (100-499 employees) and large (500-999 employees) business will see the fastest growth in IT spending, each with a CAGR of 4.4%.
Sources: Technology Purchases from Line of Business Budgets Forecast to Grow Faster Than Purchases Funded by the IT Organization, According to IDC, March 2017 and Worldwide IT Spending Forecast to Reach $2.7 Trillion in 2020 Led by Financial Services, Manufacturing, and Healthcare, According to IDC, Aug 2016.
That chart is in millions, i.e., 260m in 2016; the write-up on Quartz is a little wonky in that respect.
From IDC: “Annually, shipments of traditional PCs slipped to 260 million units, down 5.7% from 2015.”
Source: Worldwide PC sales are exactly where they were in 2008 — Quartz
For the year, Gartner estimated shipments at 269.717 million, down 6.2 per cent year-on-year, with each of the major manufacturers except Dell reporting falling sales.
Gartner says high-end PCs are doing well, but of course, are a smaller market:
There have been innovative form factors, like 2-in-1s and thin and light notebooks, as well as technology improvements, such as longer battery life. This high end of the market has grown fast, led by engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market driven by PC enthusiasts is not big enough to drive overall market growth.
There may less volume, but it’d be nice to know how that effects profits in the notoriously slim margin PC business.
Meanwhile, on overall, global IT spend:
Companies are due to splash $3.5tr (£2.87tr) on IT this year, globally, although that is down from its previous projection of three per cent.
See some more commentary of that forecast.
So, a runrate of like 92m a year.
The market — defined as A.I.-related hardware, software and services — will surge from $8 billion this year to $47 billion by 2020, predicts IDC, a research firm.
Also, some coverage of Watson business models, including customized cocktail drugs, which I hear is a scary big business in the horizon.
And, there’s some IBM AI spreadsheeting you can fiddle around with:
IBM may have a chance to join that group. By 2020, IDC predicts, 60 percent of the A.I. applications will run on the platform of four companies: Amazon, Google, Microsoft and IBM.
UBS estimates that Watson may generate $500 million in revenue this year and could grow rapidly in the years ahead, possibly hitting nearly $6 billion by 2020 and almost $17 billion by 2022.
Having lived through The Great Cloud Forecasting era around the turn of the decade, my advice is: take all this with care, but enjoy the razzle-dazzle!
Source: IBM Is Counting on Its Bet on Watson, and Paying Big Money for It
“In 2015, the worldwide application performance management software market grew an estimated 12.1% over that in 2014, in large part because of increased demand for a new generation of solutions designed to support DevOps and multicloud infrastructure initiatives,” explains Mary Johnston Turner, research vice president, Enterprise System Management Software. “This new generation of APM solutions is easier to implement, supports more sophisticated analytics, and is less expensive than earlier offerings. As a result, APM is providing value to a much wider range of developers and IT operations teams that need constant, current visibility into end-to-end application performance and end-user experience.”
The previous y/y was 12.7%, so things are going well in that market I’d say. As I recall, this includes mainframe and other “not normal” revenue. If you look at just the subset market of x86 and web apps, it’s even higher around 17%. That “distributed” APM TAM was estimated at $2.2bn in 2014.
I don’t have access to the full APM report, but the size is around several billion. One Gartner estimate put it around $2.6bn in 2014.
See also this vendor share commentary based on Gartner’s analysis of the APM market.
Source: Worldwide Application Performance Management Software Forecast, 2016–2020
Instead, it has created a great divide, said Pucciarelli. “This siloed, divided approach brings frustration, disappointment and failure in multiple ways.” For one thing, it doesn’t support healthy team spirit, he said, and the innovation side tends to operate fast to deliver business solutions without the accountability around reliability, quality and security that is expected from the traditional IT side. “It leads to redundancy and inefficiency.”
Source: Bimodal IT leads to technical debt that must be paid, with interest
China’s overall healthcare IT solutions market reached a size of US$3.8 billion in 2015. Market size is expected to hit US$6.5 billion, with a CAGR of 11.1% in the 2015-2020 period.
That’s a lot of growth. See the full press release for some details on sub-markets.
Source: IDC: Healthcare Reform and 3rd Platform Technologies Drive Healthcare IT Solutions in China
IDC’s IaaS forecast is out, tragically, I don’t have access to it. However, here’s some highlights from the press release:
- Public IaaS is in wide use “A recent survey of over 6,000 IT organizations found that nearly two thirds of the respondents are either already using or planning to use public cloud IaaS by the end of 2016.”
- Public IaaS is a large, fast growing market – the overall IaaS market is forecast to grow from $12.6bn in 2015 to $43.6bn in 2020, a CAGR of 28.2%.
- Yup, fast growing – growth from 2014 to 2015 was 51%
- People use more than one IaaS, and probably “cloud” – “[H]ybrid cloud infrastructure is already a common pattern at several large enterprises and IDC predicts that 80% of IT organizations will be committed to hybrid architectures by 2018″ – notice they say “large enterprises,” which suggests a cut of the data by company size: last I recall, IDC defined “large enterprise” as 2,500+ people, which may or may not be the case here.
- A few cloud providers dominate – Amazon is still king, and there’s an fat-head of marketshare: “In 2015, 56% of the revenue and 59% of the absolute growth went to the top 10 IaaS vendors.”
Contrast that 60% IaaS usage with the 45% use in a recent Morgan Stanley CIO survey. I don’t think that’s a huge difference, but it does show the fiddliness of these kinds of surveys. To be fair, the Morgan Stanley survey has public IaaS usage at ~90% by 2019. I’d trust IDC a lot more, esp. with 6,000 surveyed vs. 100.
Also, while I can’t verify this: I’d assume this public IaaS is not to the exclusion of private cloud/on-premises. To be sure, some, or even much, of it must be public cloud gobbling up on-premises usage and revenue. However, I wouldn’t take it as a zero-sum game between the two.
Source: Enterprise Adoption Driving Strong Growth of Public Cloud Infrastructure as a Service, According to IDC – prUS41599716