New OpenStack market-sizing and -forecast from old pals at 451:
- Al & Jay say $1.8bn in 2016, going to $5.4bn in 2020.
- Public cloud dominates now, but is expected to switch – “[public cloud providers are] 49% of total OpenStack revenue in 2015. However, we expect OpenStack private cloud service provider revenue to exceed public cloud providers by 2019.”
How they bucket-ize:
451 Research’s Market Monitor focuses on 56 vendors that provide direct OpenStack offerings, including products, services and turnkey offerings around OpenStack deployment and management, different distributions of OpenStack, service providers and training services. Although we do consider some vendors with integrated hardware, systems and software offerings based on OpenStack, our market-sizing estimate does not include hardware-centric revenue, nor does it include revenue from indirect third-party vendors, such as those in storage or software-defined networking.
Source: OpenStack-related business models to exceed $4bn by 2019
IDC’s IaaS forecast is out, tragically, I don’t have access to it. However, here’s some highlights from the press release:
- Public IaaS is in wide use “A recent survey of over 6,000 IT organizations found that nearly two thirds of the respondents are either already using or planning to use public cloud IaaS by the end of 2016.”
- Public IaaS is a large, fast growing market – the overall IaaS market is forecast to grow from $12.6bn in 2015 to $43.6bn in 2020, a CAGR of 28.2%.
- Yup, fast growing – growth from 2014 to 2015 was 51%
- People use more than one IaaS, and probably “cloud” – “[H]ybrid cloud infrastructure is already a common pattern at several large enterprises and IDC predicts that 80% of IT organizations will be committed to hybrid architectures by 2018″ – notice they say “large enterprises,” which suggests a cut of the data by company size: last I recall, IDC defined “large enterprise” as 2,500+ people, which may or may not be the case here.
- A few cloud providers dominate – Amazon is still king, and there’s an fat-head of marketshare: “In 2015, 56% of the revenue and 59% of the absolute growth went to the top 10 IaaS vendors.”
Contrast that 60% IaaS usage with the 45% use in a recent Morgan Stanley CIO survey. I don’t think that’s a huge difference, but it does show the fiddliness of these kinds of surveys. To be fair, the Morgan Stanley survey has public IaaS usage at ~90% by 2019. I’d trust IDC a lot more, esp. with 6,000 surveyed vs. 100.
Also, while I can’t verify this: I’d assume this public IaaS is not to the exclusion of private cloud/on-premises. To be sure, some, or even much, of it must be public cloud gobbling up on-premises usage and revenue. However, I wouldn’t take it as a zero-sum game between the two.
Source: Enterprise Adoption Driving Strong Growth of Public Cloud Infrastructure as a Service, According to IDC – prUS41599716
$2.3T estimated for global IT spend in 2016, with the US seeing the most growth, 1% in Western Europe, and growth slowdowns in India and China.
Source: 2016: the year IT sales will go sdrawkcaB • The Register
“Worldwide PC shipments totaled 70.7 million units in 3Q15, up 8.6% sequentially but down 11.1% from the previous year.”
Source: PCs: 3Q15 Update from IDC
“Worldwide shipments of these devices are expected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2015, a drop of one percent from 2014, according to the market watcher.”
PCs, tablet shipments set to decline further – Gartner
“IDC predicts the cloud computing market to reach about $70 billion this year and the number of new cloud-based solutions to triple within the next four to five years….the biggest cloud computing verticals worldwide will be discrete manufacturing, banking, professional services, process manufacturing, and retail. IDC expects the five verticals to represent 45 percent of the market’s total spend.”
IDC: Industry-specific solutions to drive public cloud computing
At first they was like:
The re-forecast indicates global expenditure will shrink 1.3 per cent on 2014 to $3.66tn, which is way off last year’s prediction of 3.9 per cent growth, later revised to a more modest rise of 2.4 per cent in January.
Then they was like:
Removing the currency effect [of the “strong dollar”] reveals a different story Lovelock said: the market would be growing closer to 3.1 per cent.
Yeah. Good luck figuring that out. So, people are still buying more IT globally, right?
Currency markets screwing up global IT spending
According to research firm IDC, DevOps will be adopted (in either practice or discipline) by 80 percent of Global 1000 organizations by 2019.
So, there you go! Well on it’s way, it seems. And: IDC tracks it!
(Found in a recent Chef press release.)