The Economist on Amazon – Highlights

  • Video: “In 2017 Amazon is expected to spend $4.5bn on television and film content, roughly twice what HBO will spend. But it has a big payoff.”
  • Prime momentum: “Mr Nowak reckons the company had 72m Prime members last year, up by 32% from 2015.”
  • Cloud: “Last year AWS’s revenue reached $12bn, up by more than 150% since 2014.”
  • Anti-trust, in the US: “If competitors fail to halt Amazon’s whirl of activities, antitrust enforcers might yet do so instead. This does not seem an imminent threat. American antitrust authorities mainly consider a company’s effect on consumers and pricing, not broader market power. By that standard, Amazon has brought big benefits.”

Are investors too optimistic about Amazon?

Pivotal Conversations: “Running like Google,” the CRE Program & Pivotal, with Andrew Shafer

The summary:

What does it really mean to “run like Google”? Is that even a good idea? Andrew Shafer comes back to the podcast to talk with Coté about how the Google SRE book and the newly announced Google CRE program start addressing those questions. We discuss some of the general principals, and “small” ones too that are in those bodies of work and how they represent an interesting evolution of it IT management is done. Many of the concepts that the DevOps and cloud-native community talks about pop in Google’s approach to operations and software delivery, providing a good, hyper-scale case study of how to do IT management and software development for distributed applications. We also discuss Pivotal’s involvement in the Google CRE program.

Check out the SoundCloud listing, or download the MP3 directly.

Kubernetes as the hybrid cloud magic maker

From 451’s report on Google Next:

Google believes that a hybrid architecture will persist in the coming years as enterprises continue to migrate workloads to various clouds. Its hybrid cloud architecture revolves around its virtual private cloud. Google VPC is an instantiation of GCP that can dedicate compute, storage and network resources to an enterprise. It is built upon Google’s proprietary private global network designed for high reliability, low latency and hardened security. Kubernetes acts as the orchestration and operational backplane for hybrid implementations. Elasticity and scale are achieved by linking to Google public cloud services.

It also has many numbers on market-share, SI/channel development, and geographic foot-print.

Source: Google Cloud Next 2017: Slow and steady race to greater enterprise public cloud adoption

The problem with the “DevOps tools” category, and the RightScale Cloud Survey

There’s always some good year/year stuff in this survey. I’ll have to check it out soon.

Meanwhile, some coverage from Serdar Yegulalp:

“DevOps tools”:

This category is going to be increasingly weird to cover. Here, what they really mean are “containers and container orchestration tools…oh, and configuration management tools.”

Arguably, you’d put something like Cloud Foundry in there if you have a gumbo of three different software categories, each used by people who want to follow DevOps practices and get the benefits of improving software. We haven’t put public numbers recently, but back in September of 2015 Pivotal Cloud Foundry had $100m in annual bookings, and the growth has continued.

Here’s how 451 characterized our customer base and foot-print out there:

While Pivotal Labs’ early success was among startups, PCF was designed for organizations needing to increase velocity and change their application delivery process, which appeals to large enterprises. About 90% of Pivotal’s revenue comes from enterprise customers today. The company reports that its number of paying customers is in the hundreds, with average deal sizes in the high six-figure range. It also says most of its customers are using PCF on top of VMware’s IaaS offering. AWS is currently in second place among PCF deployments with Azure as a close third that is gaining momentum among the Fortune 100.

All of that means: Pivotal Cloud Foundry has many customers running in production (with the resulting revenue) and, I’d argue, much market share. If you throw in IBM and MicroFocus/HPE’s Cloud Foundry distro revenue, plus OSS use (like at 18F), you’ve got a large chunk of Cloud Foundry usage out there, which should translate into a large chunk of “doing software better (with DevOps)” marketshare for all of Cloud Foundry.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Like I said, coverage will be weird for awhile as people sort it out. Kind of like “cloud” was in 2009, and pretty much every “PaaS” category now, though it’s getting better. I’m looking forward to what they sort out in the new(ish?) DevOps practice at IDC.

More coverage of the survey:

Private, public, hybrid:

One key trend RightScale’s tracked over 2014, 2015, and 2016 has been the use of private cloud through OpenStack, VMware, and related products. This time around, while private cloud adoption hasn’t fallen off a cliff, it’s edged down: 72 percent of respondents this year run a private cloud, versus 77 percent last year and 63 percent the prior year. Hybrid cloud has shown a similar trajectory of 67 percent in 2017, 71 percent in 2016, and 58 percent in 2015.

After margin of error, pretty slow, but a good enough pace I guess.

Make no mistake: AWS is cloud king, and it’ll safely remain that way for a long time. But Microsoft Azure has made remarkable amount of progress in the last year. In 2016, only 20 percent of respondents were running apps there; this year, it’s 34 percent. With enterprise users specifically, the growth was even more dramatic, from 26 percent to 43 percent.

And, Oracle and DigitalOcean:

Azure’s growth isn’t coming at the expense of business from other cloud providers. Oracle Cloud and DigitalOcean, the two decliners on the list, didn’t have enough business to lose in the first place to constitute Azure’s jump: respectively, 4 and 5 percent in 2016, and 3 and 2 percent this year.

Now, of course all this hinges on what exactly they mean by cloud, what the sample base is (just RightScale customers?), etc. But, anything that’s multi-year is useful.

See also Barb’s brief coverage, e.g.: “Azure, meanwhile, saw a bigger jump with 43% of respondents on Azure now, compared to 26% last year.”

Source: Docker’s tops for devops, AWS is the cloud king, InfoWorld

When to go private cloud

As represented with the star in the map above, according to CPI data, at labor efficiency of 1,000 VMs per engineer and 66% utilization, these enterprises are poised to beat public cloud on price regardless of whether they use a commercial orchestration software package, an OpenStack distribution or the OpenStack source.

And, on IaaS pricing:

But price still does matter: In a 451 Research custom study commissioned by Microsoft earlier this year, the biggest reason to change primary provider was price, cited by 34% of respondents. Consumers don’t necessarily want the cheapest cloud service, but they don’t want to feel ripped off. If there is a cheaper option elsewhere, it appears end users will take it into consideration.

Announcements on price cuts gather attention, and are a great publicity and discussion tool for service providers. We think cloud prices will continue to come down through 2017, and may spread beyond virtual machines into object storage, and perhaps even databases – virtual machines came down 7% globally in 2015, but the cost of our small application only came down 2.4%. The fact that margins are still healthy suggests providers aren’t sacrificing huge amounts of gross margin to give such cuts. If they are, it might be a few nickels and dimes here and there, but it’s more likely that they are reducing costs through better procurement and management. If we are in a cloud price war, we’ve yet to see it really get off the ground.

And, see more commentary on the topic of IaaS pricing.

Source: Cloud gross margins: The price war has yet to really kick off

Cloud Foundry’s Vision: A Services Ecosystem that Transcends Containers

“What’s the whole point of Cloud Foundry? It’s an abstraction on infrastructure,” stated Kearns. “And really, if you net it even further down, the whole point is to absolve organizations — particularly, traditional, non-tech organizations — from undifferentiating heavy lifting. What that means is, working on things that are not relevant or differentiating for your business.

Also, much discussion of the history of service broker/registries.

Link

Pivotal Cloud Foundry 1.9 out

The new version of Pivotal Cloud Foundry (“PCF” as folks like to say) is out. It has a whole slew of updates across the board.

My selective highlights:

  • Google Cloud & Azure support, so you’re all multi-cloud ready (still with OpenStack, VMware, and AWS support).
  • Will run 250,000 containers concurrently; in addition to scaling based on  CPU usage, you can now auto-scale on HTTP Latency and HTTP Throughput.
  • Updates to Spring Cloud, Zipkin, and Spring Boot Actuators for diagnostic stuff.
  • MySQL updates, esp. for multi-zone support in AWS.
  • “Tasks” one time processes that are an initial cut at “serverless”
  • A slew of security updates.

See more – much more – features and details in Jared’s blog post wrapping the release up.

2% increase in IT budgets predicted

The big takeaway is that small increases in IT budgets are the new normal. Unlike previous recoveries, we have not seen a large jump in IT spending over the past five years. So if a CIO is only seeing a two or three percent increase this year, he or she should understand that is pretty much in line with other companies.

See more guidance charts on IT priorities, n=190.

Link