Estimating the death of the IBM System i market
At an even amount of 9 percent of the current base per year or 10,8000 customers, it would only take 11 years to vaporize the IBM i base. If it is 9 percent of the base incremented down per year as it declines, it will take 40 years to reduce it from 120,000 to 3,000 customers. Neither of these scenarios seems likely given the current commitments that Big Blue is making in the Power server line and the IBM i platform. We think that without too much investment, IBM could keep the IBM i platform going at least to 2035. (That is just using Power11 chips.) We think the actual attrition rate is probably closer to 1,000 customers a year against maybe 300 new customers, but that is just a guess.
So, like, effectively: never.
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