It’s hard to predict when innovation will go mainstream

Complexity theory has established that a process dominated by preferential attachment has a power law distribution of times between adoptions. The power law distributions observed in practice have no finite means or standard deviations. That means that traditional statistical methods of predicting the time till next event, or the number of events in a time interval, all fail.2 This puts project leaders into a bind: they cannot use standard statistical methods to predict how successful the future adoptions of their technology will be.

Original source: Technology Adoption