IDC’s IaaS forecast is out, tragically, I don’t have access to it. However, here’s some highlights from the press release:
- Public IaaS is in wide use “A recent survey of over 6,000 IT organizations found that nearly two thirds of the respondents are either already using or planning to use public cloud IaaS by the end of 2016.”
- Public IaaS is a large, fast growing market – the overall IaaS market is forecast to grow from $12.6bn in 2015 to $43.6bn in 2020, a CAGR of 28.2%.
- Yup, fast growing – growth from 2014 to 2015 was 51%
- People use more than one IaaS, and probably “cloud” – “[H]ybrid cloud infrastructure is already a common pattern at several large enterprises and IDC predicts that 80% of IT organizations will be committed to hybrid architectures by 2018″ – notice they say “large enterprises,” which suggests a cut of the data by company size: last I recall, IDC defined “large enterprise” as 2,500+ people, which may or may not be the case here.
- A few cloud providers dominate – Amazon is still king, and there’s an fat-head of marketshare: “In 2015, 56% of the revenue and 59% of the absolute growth went to the top 10 IaaS vendors.”
Contrast that 60% IaaS usage with the 45% use in a recent Morgan Stanley CIO survey. I don’t think that’s a huge difference, but it does show the fiddliness of these kinds of surveys. To be fair, the Morgan Stanley survey has public IaaS usage at ~90% by 2019. I’d trust IDC a lot more, esp. with 6,000 surveyed vs. 100.
Also, while I can’t verify this: I’d assume this public IaaS is not to the exclusion of private cloud/on-premises. To be sure, some, or even much, of it must be public cloud gobbling up on-premises usage and revenue. However, I wouldn’t take it as a zero-sum game between the two.