The Stockdale Paradox and The Way of the Gun

The Stockdale Paradox as quoted by Bnoopy

You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

Put another way, à la The Way of the Gun:

The only thing you can guess about a broken down old man is that he is a survivor.